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Ice Lab

Tue, Sep 29, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Montréal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

Montréal Canadiens

Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).

Mike MathesonD · #8011+1325:070.0757.3%+17.4
Lane HutsonD · #480000024:070.0126.5%0.0
Noah DobsonD · #530000121:560.2637.1%0.0
Alexandre CarrierD · #45112+1321:540.5739.2%+30.5
Nick SuzukiC · #14000−1218:430.0117.0%0.0
Juraj SlafkovskýLW · #200000217:530.7730.8%0.0
Alex NewhookC · #150000116:110.1746.0%0.0
Cole CaufieldRW · #13000−1315:550.2223.0%0.0
Phillip DanaultC · #24000+1015:370.0039.4%0.0
Ivan DemidovRW · #93000−1115:110.1531.5%0.0
Jake EvansC · #71000+1114:500.2664.9%0.0
Chris KreiderLW · #220000114:210.1221.4%0.0
Josh AndersonRW · #17112+2312:530.4571.6%+33.7
Arber XhekajD · #720000012:200.0043.3%0.0
Alexandre TexierLW · #850000012:130.039.6%0.0
Kirby DachC · #77011+1111:070.0238.9%+16.3
Zachary BolducRW · #76101+1211:040.2662.7%+17.4
Jayden StrubleD · #470000011:020.0058.9%0.0
Jakub Dobes#75W28262.9292.94+0.959:36

Toronto Maple Leafs

Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).

Darren RaddyshD · #43000−2323:470.3056.9%0.0
Auston MatthewsC · #34000−1322:340.2069.8%0.0
Morgan RiellyD · #44011−1121:300.0068.3%+11.6
Kirill MarchenkoRW · #86011+1420:080.5882.0%+11.6
Troy StecherD · #28000+1019:050.0043.0%0.0
William NylanderRW · #88202−1518:550.5141.0%+23.1
Chris TanevD · #80000118:390.0366.8%0.0
Jack RoslovicC · #960000218:140.1177.8%0.0
Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · #950000118:070.0149.8%0.0
John TavaresC · #910110416:360.8355.4%+11.5
Easton CowanRW · #53011+1115:580.0792.1%+11.5
Nick PaulLW · #20000−1015:320.0025.3%0.0
Gavin McKennaLW · #92000−2115:190.2135.3%0.0
Colton SissonsC · #150000014:580.0263.1%0.0
Jake McCabeD · #220000111:380.0583.0%0.0
Teddy BluegerC · #73000019:460.0261.4%0.0
Brandon DuhaimeLW · #24000009:040.0025.9%0.0
Zack MacEwenRW · #19000005:250.000.0%0.0
Sergei Bobrovsky#72L24213.8752.04−1.058:45