Tue, Sep 29, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
33%
9%
9%
49%
TOR winsMTL wins
Montréal Canadiens
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 25:07 | 0.07 | 57.3% | +17.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:07 | 0.01 | 26.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:56 | 0.26 | 37.1% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 21:54 | 0.57 | 39.2% | +30.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 18:43 | 0.01 | 17.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:53 | 0.77 | 30.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:11 | 0.17 | 46.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 15:55 | 0.22 | 23.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0.00 | 39.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 15:11 | 0.15 | 31.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 14:50 | 0.26 | 64.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:21 | 0.12 | 21.4% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 12:53 | 0.45 | 71.6% | +33.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 0.00 | 43.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0.03 | 9.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 11:07 | 0.02 | 38.9% | +16.3 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:04 | 0.26 | 62.7% | +17.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0.00 | 58.9% | 0.0 |
| W | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 2.94 | +0.9 | 59:36 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 3 | 23:47 | 0.30 | 56.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 22:34 | 0.20 | 69.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 1 | 21:30 | 0.00 | 68.3% | +11.6 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 20:08 | 0.58 | 82.0% | +11.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:05 | 0.00 | 43.0% | 0.0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | −1 | 5 | 18:55 | 0.51 | 41.0% | +23.1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:39 | 0.03 | 66.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:14 | 0.11 | 77.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:07 | 0.01 | 49.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:36 | 0.83 | 55.4% | +11.5 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 15:58 | 0.07 | 92.1% | +11.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 15:32 | 0.00 | 25.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 15:19 | 0.21 | 35.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 0.02 | 63.1% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:38 | 0.05 | 83.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9:46 | 0.02 | 61.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:04 | 0.00 | 25.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:25 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| L | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 2.04 | −1.0 | 58:45 |