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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 1, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York

Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 5

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

1

Final

Home

New York Rangers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.

NYR winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:17Shot by Dorofeyev, saved by Vasilevskiy
  3. P1 1:11Shot by Schneider, saved by Vasilevskiy
  4. P1 1:18Shot by Schneider, saved by Vasilevskiy
  5. P1 5:01Moser: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Zibanejad, Pettersson, Durzi, Lafrenière, Perreault · TBL Girgensons, Cernak, Viel, Holmberg, Moser

  6. P1 5:32Shot by Dorofeyev, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  7. P1 5:34Goal by Zibanejad (Dorofeyev, Fox)5v4+12 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Zibanejad, Miller, Fox, Dorofeyev, Lafrenière · TBL McDonagh, Hedman, Cirelli, Hagel

  8. P1 7:21Shot by Harkins, saved by Shesterkin
  9. P1 8:20Schneider: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Tolvanen, Schneider, Cuylle, Laba, Smits · TBL Hedman, Guentzel, Cirelli, Hagel, D'Astous

  10. P1 8:27Shot by Carlson, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  11. P1 8:39Shot by Hagel, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  12. P1 10:24Shot by Schneider, saved by Vasilevskiy
  13. P1 10:51Goal by Dorofeyev (Bjorkstrand)+12 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Miller, Bjorkstrand, Dorofeyev, Schneider, Smits · TBL Carlson, Kucherov, Point, Mikheyev, Moser

  14. P1 12:48Shot by McDonagh, saved by Shesterkin
  15. P1 13:31Cuylle: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Gavrikov, Fox, Tolvanen, Cuylle, Laba · TBL Carlson, Kucherov, Point, Mikheyev, Moser

  16. P1 14:23Shot by Carlson, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  17. P1 17:17Shot by Guentzel, saved by Shesterkin
  18. P1 17:18Shot by Guentzel, saved by Shesterkin
  19. P1 19:35Shot by Cernak, saved by Shesterkin
  20. P1 0:00Period end
  21. P2 0:00Period start
  22. P2 1:40Goal by Tolvanen (Laba)+8 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Tolvanen, Schneider, Cuylle, Laba, Smits · TBL Hedman, Girgensons, Viel, D'Astous, Holmberg

  23. P2 2:03Shot by Hedman, saved by Shesterkin
  24. P2 2:04Shot by Holmberg, saved by Shesterkin
  25. P2 2:05Shot by Holmberg, saved by Shesterkin
  26. P2 2:05Shot by Holmberg, saved by Shesterkin
  27. P2 2:06Shot by Viel, saved by Shesterkin
  28. P2 2:07Viel: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Veleno, Kartye, Schneider, Chmelar, Smits · TBL Hedman, Girgensons, Viel, D'Astous, Holmberg

  29. P2 2:07Schneider: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Veleno, Kartye, Schneider, Chmelar, Smits · TBL Hedman, Girgensons, Viel, D'Astous, Holmberg

  30. P2 2:40Shot by Hagel, saved by Shesterkin4v4
  31. P2 3:29Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Vasilevskiy4v4
  32. P2 3:42Shot by Carlson, saved by Shesterkin4v4
  33. P2 4:31Shot by Chmelar, saved by Vasilevskiy
  34. P2 5:02Shot by Dorofeyev, saved by Vasilevskiy
  35. P2 6:47Shot by Pettersson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  36. P2 7:59Goal by Kucherov (Mikheyev, Point)+7 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Gavrikov, Fox, Dorofeyev, Cuylle, Laba · TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Point, D'Astous, Mikheyev

  37. P2 10:09Shot by Cuylle, saved by Vasilevskiy
  38. P2 11:48Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Vasilevskiy
  39. P2 11:54Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Vasilevskiy
  40. P2 12:50Shot by Cirelli, saved by Shesterkin
  41. P2 12:51Miller: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Miller, Bjorkstrand, Pettersson, Durzi, Dorofeyev · TBL McDonagh, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel, Holmberg

  42. P2 13:00Shot by Carlson, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  43. P2 16:01Goal by Perreault (Fox, Zibanejad)+6 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Zibanejad, Fox, Lafrenière, Perreault, Smits · TBL McDonagh, Cernak, Harkins, Viel, Mikheyev

  44. P2 17:32Shot by Cuylle, saved by Vasilevskiy
  45. P2 18:49Shot by Veleno, saved by Vasilevskiy
  46. P2 0:00Period end
  47. P3 0:00Period start
  48. P3 0:25Miller: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Miller, Bjorkstrand, Gavrikov, Fox, Dorofeyev · TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel

  49. P3 1:25Shot by Hagel, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  50. P3 3:32Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Vasilevskiy
  51. P3 3:34Moser: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Zibanejad, Pettersson, Lafrenière, Perreault, Smits · TBL McDonagh, Harkins, Viel, Mikheyev, Moser

  52. P3 5:04Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  53. P3 6:50Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Vasilevskiy
  54. P3 8:00Shot by Dorofeyev, saved by Vasilevskiy
  55. P3 8:02Shot by Miller, saved by Vasilevskiy
  56. P3 8:56Shot by Cuylle, saved by Vasilevskiy
  57. P3 9:04Fox: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Gavrikov, Fox, Tolvanen, Cuylle, Laba · TBL Kucherov, Point, D'Astous, Mikheyev, Moser

  58. P3 9:15Shot by Cirelli, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  59. P3 11:01Laba: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)4v6

    On ice: NYR Gavrikov, Schneider, Cuylle, Laba · TBL Carlson, Hedman, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Hagel

  60. P3 11:07Shot by Cirelli, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  61. P3 16:28Shot by Hedman, saved by Shesterkin5v6
  62. P3 16:31Shot by Point, saved by Shesterkin5v6
  63. P3 17:26Goal by Shesterkin, unassisted5v60 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Pettersson, Gavrikov, Tolvanen, Cuylle, Laba · TBL Carlson, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Hagel, Goncalves

  64. P3 19:03Durzi: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Pettersson, Durzi, Cuylle, Chmelar, Laba · TBL McDonagh, Girgensons, Harkins, Holmberg, Moser

  65. P3 19:50Shot by Guentzel, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  66. P3 0:00Period end4v5
  67. P3 0:00Final4v5