Fri, Oct 2, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Rangers 2, Detroit Red Wings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 07 | 16 | 221 |
| DET | 011 | 09 | 02 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12NYRSean DurziPPGWGAssists: Gabe Perreault, Will Cuylle · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 18:44NYREeli TolvanenENAssists: Tye Kartye, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:31DETNate Danielson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:38DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:38DETKeegan Kolesar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 5:38NYRJoseph Veleno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:38NYRAlberts Smits: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:47NYRSean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:13DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:13NYRSean Durzi: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:13DETMarco Kasper: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:28DETJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault10:29
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Bjorkstrand – Dorofeyev6:35
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Dorofeyev – Kartye3:33
xG 0.10–0.06 (65%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Veleno – Kartye – Chmelar5:48
xG 0.01–0.07 (8%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Durzi13:19
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider3:23
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Fox11:36
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Rasmussen – Kasper7:12
xG 0.39–0.01 (99%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Appleton – Danielson – Brandsegg-Nygård5:03
xG 0.09–0.04 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Compher – Arvidsson – Finnie9:42
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Copp – DeBrincat – Raymond14:09
xG 0.15–0.54 (22%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Johansson12:32
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Faulk2:16
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka9:34
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).