Sat, Oct 3, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 25 | 14 | 06 | 315 |
| BUF | 113 | 18 | 27 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Alex Vlasic, Nick Lardis · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:24CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Anton Frondell, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 16:24BUFJack QuinnAssists: Zach Metsa · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 5:41BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Louis Crevier, Josh Norris · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 18:18CHIOliver MooreAssists: Anton Frondell, Alex Vlasic · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 6:10BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Peyton Krebs, Mattias Samuelsson · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 13:20BUFJiri KulichGWGAssists: Owen Power, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 11:39BUFJosh Doan: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:05CHIOliver Moore: Interference2 min
- P3 0:53CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:51CHICole Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:58BUFZach Benson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Greene won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Greenway – Smith – Greene12:27
xG 0.60–0.87 (41%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Frondell11:16
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Kane – Nazar – Kantserov13:56
xG 0.65–0.98 (40%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Donato – Lardis – Moore5:51
xG 0.30–0.72 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Levshunov2:11
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Cole – Vlasic15:53
xG 0.88–0.89 (50%)attempts 10–18goals 2–0
- Kaiser – Del Mastro3:57
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestQuinn – Ostlund – Benson13:39
xG 1.39–0.70 (67%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- Thompson – Norris – Doan13:16
xG 0.72–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- McLeod – Krebs – Helenius6:18
xG 0.76–0.37 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–2
- Krebs – Kulich – Helenius4:08
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPower – Zellweger12:38
xG 1.10–0.35 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin17:07
xG 0.98–0.29 (77%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Crevier – Metsa6:48
xG 0.84–0.57 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).