Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
St. Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 04 | 011 | 111 | 126 |
| COL | 215 | 47 | 014 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09COLCale MakarAssists: Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:12COLMartin NecasGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 5:38COLJosh MansonAssists: Nicolas Roy, Parker Kelly · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 11:40COLArtturi LehkonenUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG0–4
- P2 18:02COLNicolas RoyAssists: Parker Kelly, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–5
- P2 18:25COLMartin NecasAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–6
- P3 2:34STLDalibor DvorskyAssists: Theo Lindstein · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:20STLZach Dean: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:18COLNicolas Roy: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:52COLBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:03STLDalibor Dvorsky: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:04STLZach Dean: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:31STLDillon Dube: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Berggren – Dvorsky3:08
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Thomas – Holloway – Snuggerud9:16
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Buchnevich – McMichael – McTavish7:26
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Berggren – Neighbours – Dvorsky6:33
xG 0.17–0.56 (24%)attempts 6–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Carlo3:47
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Parayko – Lindstein2:35
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Broberg – Jiricek2:37
xG 0.11–0.26 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Kelly – Svechkov4:19
xG 0.76–0.11 (88%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Svechkov – Hughes4:40
xG 0.27–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas10:46
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Roy – Kelly – Hughes2:30
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson7:00
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Toews – Makar8:42
xG 0.53–0.10 (83%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Manson – Malinski4:36
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 4–7goals 4–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).