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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver

St. Louis Blues 1, Colorado Avalanche 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.

COL winsSTL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:10Shot by Burns, saved by Binnington
  3. P1 2:11Shot by Schwartz, saved by Binnington
  4. P1 4:09Goal by Makar (Necas, MacKinnon)+13 pts WP

    On ice: COL Manson, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Necas, Makar · STL Parayko, Thomas, Broberg, Holloway, Snuggerud

  5. P1 4:41Shot by Buchnevich, saved by Blackwood
  6. P1 4:42Shot by McMichael, saved by Blackwood
  7. P1 6:17Shot by Hughes, saved by Binnington
  8. P1 7:39Shot by Kadri, saved by Binnington
  9. P1 7:40Shot by Kadri, saved by Binnington
  10. P1 8:12Shot by Broberg, saved by Blackwood
  11. P1 8:36Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Binnington
  12. P1 9:20Dean: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: COL Burns, Kulak, Roy, Kelly, Hughes · STL Fowler, Dube, Suter, Dean, Jiricek

  13. P1 9:53Shot by Necas, saved by Binnington5v4
  14. P1 11:13Shot by Makar, saved by Binnington5v4
  15. P1 12:23Shot by Roy, saved by Binnington
  16. P1 12:23Shot by Svechkov, saved by Binnington
  17. P1 13:12Goal by Necas (MacKinnon, Lehkonen)+13 pts WP

    On ice: COL Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Toews, Necas, Makar · STL Parayko, Thomas, Broberg, Holloway, Snuggerud

  18. P1 16:28Shot by Schwartz, saved by Binnington
  19. P1 16:37Shot by Makar, saved by Binnington
  20. P1 17:49Shot by Fowler, saved by Blackwood
  21. P1 19:33Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Binnington
  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 0:21Shot by Broberg, saved by Blackwood
  25. P2 1:20Shot by Manson, saved by Binnington
  26. P2 5:03Shot by Parayko, saved by Blackwood
  27. P2 5:38Goal by Manson (Roy, Kelly)+7 pts WP

    On ice: COL Manson, Roy, Kelly, Malinski, Hughes · STL Carlo, Berggren, Neighbours, Dvorsky, Lindstein

  28. P2 6:18Roy: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: COL Burns, Kulak, Roy, Kelly, Hughes · STL Fowler, Dube, Suter, Dean, Jiricek

  29. P2 7:26Shot by McTavish, saved by Blackwood4v5
  30. P2 8:00Shot by Jiricek, saved by Blackwood4v5
  31. P2 8:11Shot by Neighbours, saved by Blackwood4v5
  32. P2 9:38Shot by Carlo, saved by Blackwood
  33. P2 10:04Shot by Juulsen, saved by Binnington
  34. P2 10:33Shot by Berggren, saved by Blackwood
  35. P2 11:26Shot by Broberg, saved by Blackwood
  36. P2 11:40Goal by Lehkonen, unassisted+3 pts WP

    On ice: COL Kadri, Manson, Lehkonen, Necas, Malinski · STL Parayko, Dube, Suter, Broberg, Dean

  37. P2 12:52Burns: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Burns, Kulak, Roy, Kelly, Svechkov · STL Fowler, Buchnevich, McMichael, Broberg, McTavish

  38. P2 15:03Dvorsky: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: COL Burns, Lehkonen, Juulsen, Kelly, Malinski · STL Parayko, Buchnevich, Suter, Broberg, Dvorsky

  39. P2 15:24Shot by Necas, saved by Binnington5v4
  40. P2 16:54Shot by McMichael, saved by Blackwood5v4
  41. P2 18:02Goal by Roy (Kelly, Manson)+1 pts WP

    On ice: COL Manson, Roy, Kelly, Svechkov, Malinski · STL Berggren, Holloway, Dean, Lindstein, Jiricek

  42. P2 18:25Goal by Necas (Landeskog, MacKinnon)0 pts WP

    On ice: COL Manson, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Necas, Malinski · STL Berggren, Broberg, Neighbours, Dvorsky, Jiricek

  43. P2 19:30Shot by Buchnevich, saved by Blackwood
  44. P2 19:33Shot by Parayko, saved by Blackwood
  45. P2 0:00Period end
  46. P3 0:00Period start
  47. P3 0:48Shot by Nelson, saved by Binnington
  48. P3 2:34Goal by Dvorsky (Lindstein)0 pts WP

    On ice: COL Burns, Schwartz, Manson, Roy, Hughes · STL Carlo, Berggren, Neighbours, Dvorsky, Lindstein

  49. P3 3:49Shot by McTavish, saved by Blackwood
  50. P3 4:31Shot by Holloway, saved by Blackwood
  51. P3 4:56Shot by Holloway, saved by Blackwood
  52. P3 5:11Shot by Malinski, saved by Binnington
  53. P3 5:35Shot by Berggren, saved by Blackwood
  54. P3 6:11Shot by Kadri, saved by Binnington
  55. P3 6:23Shot by McTavish, saved by Blackwood
  56. P3 6:32Shot by Carlo, saved by Blackwood
  57. P3 7:00Shot by Hughes, saved by Binnington
  58. P3 7:04Dean: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: COL Schwartz, Toews, Makar, Svechkov, Hughes · STL Dube, Suter, Broberg, Dean, Jiricek

  59. P3 7:06Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Binnington5v4
  60. P3 8:35Shot by Kadri, saved by Binnington5v4
  61. P3 8:57Shot by Schwartz, saved by Binnington5v4
  62. P3 9:03Shot by Lehkonen, saved by Binnington5v4
  63. P3 9:40Shot by Roy, saved by Binnington
  64. P3 9:42Shot by Svechkov, saved by Binnington
  65. P3 9:59Shot by Burns, saved by Binnington
  66. P3 10:56Shot by Berggren, saved by Blackwood
  67. P3 11:39Shot by Dvorsky, saved by Blackwood
  68. P3 11:41Shot by Dvorsky, saved by Blackwood
  69. P3 11:49Shot by Schwartz, saved by Binnington
  70. P3 12:31Dube: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: COL Lehkonen, MacKinnon, Toews, Necas, Malinski · STL Parayko, Dube, Suter, Dean, Lindstein

  71. P3 13:30Shot by MacKinnon, saved by Binnington5v4
  72. P3 15:18Shot by Kelly, saved by Binnington
  73. P3 15:32Shot by Snuggerud, saved by Blackwood
  74. P3 0:00Period end
  75. P3 0:00Final