Mon, Oct 5, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 013 | 08 | 314 | 335 |
| PIT | 012 | 110 | 19 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:27PITBen KindelAssists: Declan Carlile, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.77 xG0–1
- P3 4:43WPGAlex IafalloUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 7:08WPGAdam LowryAssists: Alex Iafallo, Dylan DeMelo · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 8:53PITDeclan CarlileAssists: Ben Kindel, Ville Koivunen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 9:02WPGCole PerfettiGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:01WPGViggo Björck: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:12WPGJosh Morrissey: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:05PITBlake Lizotte: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Iafallo – Rosen3:42
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Koepke3:37
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Vilardi – Barron – Björck3:49
xG 0.08–0.04 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Koepke – Lambert3:18
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Samberg5:31
xG 0.61–0.05 (93%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey10:56
xG 0.68–0.44 (60%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Morrissey – St. Ivany2:32
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDewar – Lizotte – Kindel5:18
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Dewar – Lizotte – Lapierre4:09
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Koivunen2:25
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Robertson10:17
xG 0.64–0.51 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Carlile15:00
xG 1.27–0.89 (59%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Letang – van Riemsdyk15:28
xG 0.75–0.45 (62%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Girard – Korczak12:17
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).