Mon, Oct 5, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
45%
9%
38%
PIT winsWPG wins
Winnipeg Jets
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:50 | 0.00 | 51.6% | +25.8 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 22:24 | 0.01 | 71.6% | +24.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 6 | 21:59 | 0.32 | 32.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21:18 | 0.68 | 34.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:03 | 0.05 | 34.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:04 | 0.41 | 19.9% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 4 | 19:59 | 0.28 | 30.6% | +25.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:53 | 0.08 | 38.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:55 | 0.04 | 31.4% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 15:49 | 0.12 | 53.9% | +24.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14:21 | 0.41 | 43.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 0.00 | 49.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 13:30 | 0.09 | 43.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:43 | 0.09 | 30.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 12:05 | 0.10 | 56.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:04 | 0.13 | 60.9% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 10:24 | 0.31 | 81.3% | +57.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8:29 | 0.11 | 52.3% | 0.0 |
| W | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 3.43 | +1.4 | 60:00 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24:00 | 0.12 | 56.0% | +24.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:23 | 0.05 | 65.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 20:37 | 0.29 | 61.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 0.00 | 51.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 5 | 19:27 | 0.54 | 62.2% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:37 | 0.88 | 58.8% | +49.9 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 18:23 | 0.22 | 60.0% | +49.9 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 4 | 17:47 | 0.32 | 34.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 17:12 | 0.04 | 50.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 15:14 | 0.05 | 56.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 15:12 | 0.13 | 37.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:46 | 0.23 | 66.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0.05 | 43.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 13:30 | 0.05 | 55.7% | +25.4 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 13:22 | 0.03 | 56.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 12:17 | 0.12 | 37.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:12 | 0.07 | 77.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 0.22 | 62.0% | 0.0 |
| L | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 2.61 | −0.4 | 57:23 |