Thu, Oct 8, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 111 | 07 | 129 |
| OTT | 18 | 09 | 19 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:14OTTNick CousinsAssists: Tyler Kleven, Warren Foegele · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 7:46PHIMatvei MichkovPPAssists: Trevor Zegras, Travis Konecny · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 13:01OTTCarter YakemchukPPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:00OTTDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:10PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:19PHIMatvei Michkov: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:29PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min
- P1 14:40PHISimon Benoit: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:04OTTTyler Kleven: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:17OTTDrake Batherson: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:50OTTJordan Spence: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:09PHIMichael Bunting: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Martone6:39
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Tippett – Zegras8:21
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Foerster – Barkey – Michkov4:48
xG 0.13–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bunting – Acciari – Cates5:42
xG 0.12–0.43 (22%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Drysdale13:38
xG 1.13–0.22 (83%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Seeler – Benoit7:37
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- York – Jiricek9:12
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Batherson – Stützle2:52
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cousins – Foegele – Halliday2:42
xG 0.10–0.05 (69%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto8:05
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Cozens – Greig3:57
xG 0.08–0.53 (13%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Spence16:53
xG 1.02–0.77 (57%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0
- Matinpalo – Stanley9:01
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kleven – Yakemchuk9:14
xG 0.23–0.77 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).