Fri, Oct 9, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 1, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 08 | 07 | 122 |
| WSH | 010 | 212 | 15 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPAssists: J.T. Miller, Pavel Dorofeyev · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 6:08WSHTimothy LiljegrenAssists: Dylan Strome, Ryan Leonard · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 17:38WSHBoone JennerGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 19:59WSHTom WilsonENAssists: Vincent Desharnais · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:36WSHRyan Leonard: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:24WSHDylan McIlrath: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:05NYRCole Beaudoin: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:50NYRJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:57WSHBoone Jenner: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:31NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault10:51
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Tolvanen – Cuylle – Laba8:00
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Dorofeyev – Kartye11:08
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Bjorkstrand – Chmelar – Beaudoin7:07
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox15:10
xG 0.90–0.58 (61%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Schneider – Smits11:52
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Durzi13:23
xG 0.23–0.91 (20%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Sourdif – Leonard8:31
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier8:36
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kyrou – Protas – Protas7:32
xG 0.09–0.23 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Tuch – Dubois11:23
xG 0.56–0.78 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcIlrath – Hutson2:47
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Hutson2:21
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Fehérváry8:29
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).