Sat, Oct 10, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 210 | 18 | 28 | 526 |
| NYI | 04 | 310 | 09 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45TBLJake GuentzelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:42TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Victor Hedman, Max Crozier · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 6:27NYITony DeAngeloAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:54TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
- P2 11:41NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.22 xG3–2
- P2 19:53NYIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Matias Maccelli · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 18:16TBLBrandon HagelGWGAssists: Max Crozier, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 18:37TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.61 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:45NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:51NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:45NYIEmil Heineman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:29TBLPontus Holmberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:44TBLScott Sabourin: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:44NYILogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:43NYIVictor Eklund: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:12TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Cirelli – Hagel9:47
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 3–1
- Sabourin – Goncalves – Geekie3:17
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Sabourin – Hagel – Geekie2:10
xG 0.01–0.02 (42%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves10:17
xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Crozier4:52
xG 0.37–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:50
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- D'Astous – Crozier10:07
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Horvat – Heineman9:43
xG 0.60–0.11 (85%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Pageau – Duclair6:41
xG 0.50–0.11 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 2–1
- Cizikas – Palat – Maccelli4:08
xG 0.08–0.11 (44%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Ritchie – Eklund10:50
xG 0.08–0.14 (38%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Schaefer5:28
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Mayfield – DeAngelo6:42
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Stanley – Schaefer14:11
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).