Sat, Oct 10, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
21%
8%
9%
62%
NYI winsTBL wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
NYI forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Girgensons–Holmberg–Mikheyev | Kucherov–Point–Goncalves | Guentzel–Cirelli–Hagel | Sabourin–Goncalves–Geekie | Sabourin–Hagel–Geekie | Sabourin–Guentzel–Geekie | Carlson–Moser | McDonagh–Cernak | D'Astous–Crozier | Hedman–Crozier | Hedman–Cernak | Cernak–D'Astous | Carlson–Hedman | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schenn–Ritchie–Eklund | 1:310.00–0.00 | 5:530.05–0.03 | 1:540.03–0.10 | 5:180.08–0.14 | 1:460.00–0.00 | 0:560.00–0.00 | 1:310.00–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.00 | |||||
| Palmieri–Horvat–Heineman | 6:530.47–0.09 | 0:380.10–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.01 | 1:380.06–0.00 | 4:500.39–0.06 | 2:010.10–0.04 | 0:310.04–0.00 | ||||||
| Palat–Pageau–Duclair | 0:470.00–0.00 | 1:300.10–0.00 | 3:270.22–0.11 | 0:490.04–0.00 | 0:550.22–0.00 | 2:250.05–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.07 | 0:300.18–0.00 | |||||
| Cizikas–Palat–Maccelli | 0:520.00–0.00 | 0:360.08–0.00 | 1:240.00–0.08 | 1:240.08–0.00 | 1:100.00–0.08 | 0:560.00–0.02 | |||||||
| Cizikas–Holmstrom–Maccelli | 0:330.00–0.07 | 1:240.00–0.19 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.07 | 0:450.00–0.00 | 1:100.00–0.19 | |||||||
| Pageau–Duclair–Holmstrom | 2:310.00–0.37 | 0:430.00–0.03 | 1:100.00–0.25 | 0:510.00–0.09 | |||||||||
| Stanley–Schaefer | 3:210.09–0.00 | 5:580.10–0.07 | 2:220.04–0.13 | 0:370.10–0.00 | 7:130.18–0.07 | 0:540.00–0.00 | 3:240.16–0.00 | 1:250.00–0.10 | |||||
| Pelech–Pulock | 2:380.04–0.10 | 1:000.00–0.00 | 4:340.00–0.38 | 1:090.08–0.19 | 0:340.00–0.01 | 3:090.08–0.14 | 2:530.00–0.07 | 2:100.00–0.24 | 1:440.04–0.23 | ||||
| Mayfield–DeAngelo | 1:320.24–0.05 | 0:410.00–0.00 | 1:300.00–0.08 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 3:020.24–0.13 | 0:440.00–0.02 | 0:520.18–0.00 | ||||||
| DeAngelo–Schaefer | 3:120.15–0.00 | 0:310.05–0.00 | 0:490.22–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 3:030.37–0.00 | 0:550.05–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Pulock–Schaefer | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Pelech–Stanley | 0:490.00–0.03 | 0:390.00–0.03 | |||||||||||
| Pelech–DeAngelo | 0:300.01–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.07 | 0:500.01–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Pelech–Schaefer | 0:580.00–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
NYITBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Matthew SchaeferNYI | 31 | 27:07 | 0:52 | 2:09 | 1 | 3 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 30 | 21:32 | 0:43 | 1:41 | 2 | 8 |
 Adam PelechNYI | 32 | 21:11 | 0:40 | 2:02 | 4 | 2 |
 John CarlsonTBL | 23 | 20:43 | 0:54 | 2:17 | 5 | 1 |
 Bo HorvatNYI | 25 | 20:15 | 0:49 | 1:41 | 3 | 2 |
 Logan StanleyNYI | 26 | 19:38 | 0:45 | 1:20 | 1 | 4 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 25 | 19:29 | 0:47 | 2:02 | 3 | 4 |
 Ryan PulockNYI | 31 | 19:14 | 0:37 | 1:27 | 2 | 2 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 27 | 19:01 | 0:42 | 1:37 | 0 | 2 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 22 | 18:57 | 0:52 | 1:28 | 4 | 1 |
 Gage GoncalvesTBL | 25 | 18:13 | 0:44 | 1:54 | 2 | 1 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 29 | 18:04 | 0:37 | 1:12 | 5 | 9 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 22 | 17:46 | 0:48 | 1:25 | 4 | 1 |
 Pontus HolmbergTBL | 30 | 17:37 | 0:35 | 1:13 | 1 | 1 |
 Brayden SchennNYI | 19 | 17:20 | 0:55 | 2:11 | 4 | 0 |
 J.J. MoserTBL | 22 | 17:01 | 0:46 | 1:38 | 2 | 1 |
 Tony DeAngeloNYI | 22 | 16:33 | 0:45 | 1:51 | 3 | 0 |
 Max CrozierTBL | 22 | 16:30 | 0:45 | 1:38 | 2 | 1 |
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 22 | 15:56 | 0:43 | 1:58 | 0 | 3 |
 Ondrej PalatNYI | 22 | 15:29 | 0:42 | 1:32 | 1 | 1 |
 Kyle PalmieriNYI | 19 | 15:16 | 0:48 | 1:41 | 3 | 2 |
 Ilya MikheyevTBL | 25 | 15:16 | 0:37 | 1:12 | 1 | 1 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsTBL | 26 | 15:13 | 0:35 | 1:11 | 1 | 1 |
 Scott MayfieldNYI | 19 | 14:45 | 0:47 | 1:38 | 1 | 2 |
 Jean-Gabriel PageauNYI | 25 | 14:41 | 0:35 | 1:13 | 3 | 5 |
 Matias MaccelliNYI | 17 | 14:29 | 0:51 | 2:32 | 1 | 1 |
 Emil HeinemanNYI | 20 | 13:41 | 0:41 | 1:18 | 0 | 2 |
 Calum RitchieNYI | 16 | 13:37 | 0:51 | 1:11 | 4 | 0 |
 Charle-Edouard D'AstousTBL | 16 | 13:30 | 0:51 | 1:31 | 1 | 0 |
 Victor EklundNYI | 17 | 13:25 | 0:47 | 1:11 | 3 | 0 |
 Simon HolmstromNYI | 20 | 13:18 | 0:40 | 1:09 | 0 | 4 |
 Anthony DuclairNYI | 19 | 13:17 | 0:42 | 1:16 | 1 | 0 |
 Conor GeekieTBL | 17 | 11:28 | 0:40 | 0:57 | 1 | 0 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 15 | 10:34 | 0:42 | 1:41 | 0 | 2 |
 Casey CizikasNYI | 16 | 10:10 | 0:38 | 1:11 | 0 | 3 |
 Scott SabourinTBL | 14 | 9:29 | 0:41 | 1:02 | 1 | 0 |