Sat, Oct 10, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 010 | 28 | 428 |
| CGY | 19 | 112 | 08 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:02ANAJackson LaCombePPAssists: Leo Carlsson, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 15:03CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Matt Coronato, Simon Nemec · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 19:15ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Ryan Poehling, Noah Warren · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 17:54CGYAydar SunievAssists: Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 5:35ANARyan PoehlingSHGWGAssists: Pavel Mintyukov · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 17:03ANANikita NesterenkoAssists: Alex Killorn, Mikael Granlund · Poke, 0.11 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:52CGYZayne Parekh: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:39ANAJackson LaCombe: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:34ANATim Washe: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:21ANABeckett Sennecke: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:33CGYJonathan Castagna: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Granlund – Nesterenko2:08
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Caulfield – Malott – Washe7:03
xG 0.44–0.14 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Vatrano – Poehling6:29
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Colangelo – Carlsson – Sennecke9:13
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHinds – Luneau15:26
xG 0.83–0.32 (72%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Mintyukov – Warren2:36
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- LaCombe – Warren10:01
xG 0.78–0.69 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKlapka – Castagna – Tsyplakov6:28
xG 0.30–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Strome – Pospisil – Gridin7:52
xG 0.51–0.60 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Frost – Coronato – Suniev8:44
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 6–14goals 2–0
- Backlund – Farabee – Sharangovich12:09
xG 0.37–0.67 (35%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBahl – Nemec15:56
xG 0.99–0.53 (65%)attempts 21–12goals 2–0
- Whitecloud – Kuznetsov14:16
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Nemec2:30
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).