Sun, Oct 11, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 39 | 110 | 430 |
| PHI | 05 | 17 | 07 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:16CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Sean Walker · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 13:45CARShayne GostisbehereGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, William Carrier · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 15:26PHIChristian DvorakAssists: Nick Seeler, Denver Barkey · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 16:54CARSebastian AhoAssists: William Carrier, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 15:09CARMark JankowskiAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.13 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:59PHIOliver Bonk: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:37PHIOliver Bonk: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:12CARWilliam Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:11CARWilliam Carrier: Holding2 min
- P3 6:29CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:18PHITyson Foerster: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:44PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Aho – Svechnikov9:37
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake11:06
xG 0.64–0.40 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Martinook – Ehlers9:40
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – Robinson – Kotkaniemi7:56
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield13:53
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Reilly – Gostisbehere8:48
xG 0.44–0.25 (63%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Walker – Miller16:36
xG 0.81–0.65 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Grundstrom – Cates6:42
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Couturier – Acciari – Grundstrom2:38
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Foerster – Barkey9:49
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Couturier – Tippett – Martone6:31
xG 0.09–0.38 (19%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Bonk12:28
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 13–6goals 0–3
- Sanheim – Drysdale2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Benoit – Jiricek8:22
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).