Sat, Oct 9, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 06 | 16 | 118 |
| TOR | 217 | 114 | 27 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:51TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 8:18TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Mike Komisarek · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 2:44TORKris VersteegPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.45 xG0–4
- P3 5:39TORTim BrentUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–5
- P3 7:11OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Sergei Gonchar · Snap, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 10:10OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:54OTTZack Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 4:13OTTJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:23TORColby Armstrong: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:42TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:41OTTChris Kelly: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 2:18OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:04OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:04TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:59OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:59TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:27TORTim Brent: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:49OTTMike Fisher: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:49TORKris Versteeg: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:38TORNikolay Kulemin: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:38TORDion Phaneuf: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Spezza – Regin4:46
xG 0.51–0.04 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly7:35
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Regin – Smith – Winchester4:08
xG 0.03–0.10 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Michalek4:42
xG 0.16–0.42 (27%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCampoli – Karlsson3:09
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Carkner – Lee8:23
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Carkner – Campoli3:26
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:35
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Sjostrom – Armstrong – Brent11:13
xG 0.36–0.20 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Zigomanis – Orr – Brown4:27
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Kessel – Bozak11:15
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn15:12
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson12:17
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf10:31
xG 0.25–0.67 (27%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).