Fri, Oct 22, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 214 | 15 | 432 |
| BUF | 14 | 112 | 020 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:54OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 13:58BUFTim ConnollyAssists: Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 3:27OTTRyan ShannonAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 4:45BUFTim ConnollyAssists: Jochen Hecht, Chris Butler · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 10:44OTTDaniel AlfredssonGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:38OTTDaniel AlfredssonENAssists: Mike Fisher, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:46BUFTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:27BUFPaul Gaustad: Holding2 min
- P2 6:36BUFThomas Vanek: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:36OTTJarkko Ruutu: Diving2 min
- P2 14:46BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:49OTTAlex Kovalev: Holding2 min
- P3 18:49BUFSteve Montador: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Regin – Foligno9:48
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly13:21
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Michalek14:29
xG 0.65–0.66 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Campoli11:34
xG 0.60–0.17 (77%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Hale – Karlsson14:08
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Phillips17:14
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Connolly – McCormick10:35
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 16–4goals 2–1
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe7:12
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Vanek – Stafford15:29
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Ennis7:58
xG 0.11–0.64 (15%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontador – Butler13:33
xG 0.22–0.05 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Rivet – Sekera12:41
xG 0.23–0.57 (29%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Leopold – Myers17:03
xG 0.60–0.95 (39%)attempts 15–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).