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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 22, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Ottawa Senators 4, Buffalo Sabres 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.

BUF winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:43Shot by Hecht, saved by Elliott
  3. P1 2:18Shot by Hale, saved by Miller
  4. P1 3:37Shot by Stafford, saved by Elliott
  5. P1 5:11Shot by Kovalev, saved by Miller
  6. P1 7:04Shot by Fisher, saved by Miller
  7. P1 7:32Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Miller
  8. P1 10:44Shot by Michalek, saved by Miller
  9. P1 10:46Myers: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Leopold, Roy, Vanek, Stafford, Myers · OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Phillips, Fisher, Michalek

  10. P1 11:25Shot by Kovalev, saved by Miller4v5
  11. P1 11:54Goal by Alfredsson (Karlsson, Gonchar)4v5+19 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Hecht, Connolly, Leopold, Montador · OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Fisher, Michalek, Karlsson

  12. P1 12:18Shot by Gonchar, saved by Miller
  13. P1 13:50Shot by Connolly, saved by Elliott
  14. P1 13:58Goal by Connolly (Sekera)+20 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Rivet, Hecht, Connolly, McCormick, Sekera · OTT Hale, Campoli, Shannon, Lee, Winchester

  15. P1 15:39Shot by Foligno, saved by Miller
  16. P1 15:53Shot by Foligno, saved by Miller
  17. P1 15:58Shot by Carkner, saved by Miller
  18. P1 17:27Gaustad: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Hecht, Gaustad, Montador, Kaleta, Butler · OTT Alfredsson, Hale, Michalek, Winchester, Karlsson

  19. P1 17:45Shot by Campoli, saved by Miller4v5
  20. P1 18:16Shot by Kovalev, saved by Miller4v5
  21. P1 0:00Period end
  22. P2 0:00Period start
  23. P2 1:14Shot by Stafford, saved by Elliott
  24. P2 2:07Shot by McCormick, saved by Elliott
  25. P2 3:24Shot by Foligno, saved by Miller
  26. P2 3:27Goal by Shannon (Foligno)+23 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Niedermayer, Grier, Leopold, Myers, Ennis · OTT Carkner, Campoli, Shannon, Foligno, Winchester

  27. P2 4:00Shot by Fisher, saved by Miller
  28. P2 4:45Goal by Connolly (Hecht, Butler)+23 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Hecht, Connolly, Montador, McCormick, Butler · OTT Kovalev, Carkner, Campoli, Regin, Foligno

  29. P2 5:31Shot by Gaustad, saved by Elliott
  30. P2 5:56Shot by Roy, saved by Elliott
  31. P2 6:36Vanek: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Rivet, Roy, Vanek, Stafford, Sekera · OTT Gonchar, Phillips, Ruutu, Neil, Kelly

  32. P2 6:36Ruutu: Diving (2 min)4v5

    On ice: BUF Rivet, Roy, Vanek, Stafford, Sekera · OTT Gonchar, Phillips, Ruutu, Neil, Kelly

  33. P2 6:55Shot by Myers, saved by Elliott4v4
  34. P2 7:20Shot by Phillips, saved by Miller4v4
  35. P2 7:50Shot by Michalek, saved by Miller4v4
  36. P2 8:49Shot by Rivet, saved by Elliott
  37. P2 9:35Shot by Stafford, saved by Elliott
  38. P2 10:18Shot by Leopold, saved by Elliott
  39. P2 10:30Shot by Michalek, saved by Miller
  40. P2 10:44Goal by Alfredsson (Karlsson)+25 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Hecht, Connolly, Leopold, McCormick, Myers · OTT Alfredsson, Fisher, Hale, Michalek, Karlsson

  41. P2 10:53Shot by Vanek, saved by Elliott
  42. P2 12:38Shot by Gerbe, saved by Elliott
  43. P2 14:45Shot by Fisher, saved by Miller
  44. P2 14:46Roy: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Leopold, Roy, Vanek, Kaleta, Myers · OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Phillips, Fisher, Michalek

  45. P2 15:24Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Miller4v5
  46. P2 15:29Shot by Gonchar, saved by Miller4v5
  47. P2 16:36Shot by Karlsson, saved by Miller4v5
  48. P2 18:52Shot by Neil, saved by Miller
  49. P2 19:12Shot by Kaleta, saved by Elliott
  50. P2 19:29Shot by Fisher, saved by Miller
  51. P2 19:54Shot by Phillips, saved by Miller
  52. P2 0:00Period end
  53. P3 0:00Period start
  54. P3 1:00Shot by Sekera, saved by Elliott
  55. P3 1:50Shot by Ruutu, saved by Miller
  56. P3 2:48Shot by Gerbe, saved by Elliott6v5
  57. P3 2:49Kovalev: Holding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: BUF Grier, Connolly, Leopold, Gaustad, Gerbe, Myers · OTT Kovalev, Hale, Regin, Foligno, Karlsson

  58. P3 2:55Shot by Stafford, saved by Elliott5v4
  59. P3 3:17Shot by Gaustad, saved by Elliott5v4
  60. P3 5:44Shot by Ennis, saved by Elliott
  61. P3 6:40Shot by Myers, saved by Elliott
  62. P3 6:42Shot by Hecht, saved by Elliott
  63. P3 7:08Shot by Hecht, saved by Elliott
  64. P3 7:15Shot by Montador, saved by Elliott
  65. P3 8:08Shot by Regin, saved by Miller
  66. P3 9:18Shot by Connolly, saved by Elliott
  67. P3 10:23Shot by Montador, saved by Elliott
  68. P3 10:47Shot by Vanek, saved by Elliott
  69. P3 11:14Shot by Kelly, saved by Miller
  70. P3 11:47Shot by Kovalev, saved by Miller
  71. P3 13:25Shot by Niedermayer, saved by Elliott
  72. P3 13:41Shot by Niedermayer, saved by Elliott
  73. P3 13:57Shot by Sekera, saved by Elliott
  74. P3 15:38Shot by Connolly, saved by Elliott
  75. P3 18:03Shot by Sekera, saved by Elliott
  76. P3 18:35Shot by Hecht, saved by Elliott
  77. P3 18:49Montador: Interference (2 min)6v5

    On ice: BUF Connolly, Montador, Roy, Vanek, Stafford, Sekera · OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Phillips, Fisher, Michalek

  78. P3 19:12Shot by Leopold, saved by Elliott
  79. P3 19:21Shot by Vanek, saved by Elliott
  80. P3 19:38Goal by Alfredsson (Fisher, Gonchar)+2 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Connolly, Leopold, Roy, Vanek, Stafford · OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Phillips, Fisher, Kelly

  81. P3 0:00Period end
  82. P3 0:00Final