Wed, Oct 27, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 312 | 010 | 09 | 331 |
| TBL | 28 | 111 | 212 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51TBLDana TyrellAssists: Nate Thompson, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 3:28PITCraig AdamsSHAssists: Matt Cooke, Brooks Orpik · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 4:29PITMatt CookeSHAssists: Kris Letang, Craig Adams · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P1 12:15PITPascal DupuisAssists: Craig Adams, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P1 16:40TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Pavel Kubina, Mattias Ritola · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 8:43TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 6:40TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Steve Downie, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 19:29TBLMartin St. LouisENAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 3:18PITPascal Dupuis: Holding2 min
- P1 10:04PITCraig Adams: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:05TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:05PITBen Lovejoy: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:05TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P1 14:05PITBen Lovejoy: Misconduct10 min
- P1 14:05TBLSean Bergenheim: Interference2 min
- P2 1:08PITMike Comrie: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:40PITPascal Dupuis: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:18PITChris Kunitz: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:52TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:16TBLMike Vernace: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:51PITEvgeni Malkin: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 15:12PITAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P2 19:03TBLTeddy Purcell: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:20PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:34TBLAdam Hall: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAsham – Kunitz – Crosby2:34
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Comrie – Malkin – Letestu2:41
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby4:53
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Talbot – Kennedy2:51
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Engelland3:28
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang3:36
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Orpik – Lovejoy4:30
xG 0.17–0.17 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos2:32
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Bergenheim5:04
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell11:20
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Jones4:25
xG 0.25–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Lundin3:05
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kubina – Jones2:36
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).