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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 27, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.

TBL winsPIT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:20Shot by Orpik, saved by Smith
  3. P1 2:51Goal by Tyrell (Thompson, Kubina)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Hall, Thompson, Jones, Tyrell · PIT Martin, Kunitz, Malkin, Crosby, Letang

  4. P1 3:18Dupuis: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Clark, Hall, Thompson, Tyrell, Hedman · PIT Dupuis, Orpik, Kunitz, Crosby, Lovejoy

  5. P1 3:28Goal by Adams (Cooke, Orpik)5v4+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Clark, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Malone, Stamkos · PIT Adams, Cooke, Orpik, Goligoski

  6. P1 4:27Shot by Letang, saved by Smith5v4
  7. P1 4:29Goal by Cooke (Letang, Adams)5v4+18 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Ritola, Downie, Purcell, Hedman · PIT Adams, Cooke, Orpik, Letang

  8. P1 5:06Shot by St. Louis, saved by Fleury5v4
  9. P1 6:35Shot by Orpik, saved by Smith
  10. P1 7:06Shot by Martin, saved by Smith
  11. P1 7:23Shot by St. Louis, saved by Fleury
  12. P1 7:31Shot by St. Louis, saved by Fleury
  13. P1 7:37Shot by Thompson, saved by Fleury
  14. P1 10:04Adams: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kubina, St. Louis, Malone, Lundin, Stamkos · PIT Asham, Adams, Rupp, Martin, Letang

  15. P1 12:15Goal by Dupuis (Adams, Crosby)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Hall, Thompson, Lundin, Tyrell · PIT Adams, Dupuis, Orpik, Goligoski, Crosby

  16. P1 12:59Shot by Comrie, saved by Ellis
  17. P1 14:05Downie: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Clark, Lecavalier, Bergenheim, Vernace, Downie · PIT Asham, Orpik, Talbot, Kennedy, Lovejoy

  18. P1 14:05Lovejoy: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TBL Clark, Lecavalier, Bergenheim, Vernace, Downie · PIT Asham, Orpik, Talbot, Kennedy, Lovejoy

  19. P1 14:05Downie: Misconduct (10 min)4v4

    On ice: TBL Clark, Lecavalier, Bergenheim, Vernace, Downie · PIT Asham, Orpik, Talbot, Kennedy, Lovejoy

  20. P1 14:05Lovejoy: Misconduct (10 min)4v4

    On ice: TBL Clark, Lecavalier, Bergenheim, Vernace, Downie · PIT Asham, Orpik, Talbot, Kennedy, Lovejoy

  21. P1 14:05Bergenheim: Interference (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TBL Clark, Lecavalier, Bergenheim, Vernace, Downie · PIT Asham, Orpik, Talbot, Kennedy, Lovejoy

  22. P1 14:43Shot by Letang, saved by Ellis4v5
  23. P1 15:32Shot by Letang, saved by Ellis4v5
  24. P1 15:55Shot by Comrie, saved by Ellis4v5
  25. P1 16:40Goal by Purcell (Kubina, Ritola)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Vernace, Ritola, Purcell, Stamkos · PIT Cooke, Comrie, Engelland, Goligoski, Letestu

  26. P1 16:57Shot by Bergenheim, saved by Fleury
  27. P1 18:06Shot by Rupp, saved by Ellis
  28. P1 18:50Shot by Bergenheim, saved by Fleury
  29. P1 0:00Period end
  30. P2 0:00Period start
  31. P2 1:08Comrie: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kubina, St. Louis, Malone, Lundin, Stamkos · PIT Comrie, Orpik, Malkin, Goligoski, Letestu

  32. P2 1:15Shot by Malone, saved by Fleury5v4
  33. P2 1:16Shot by Malone, saved by Fleury5v4
  34. P2 2:02Shot by Malone, saved by Fleury5v4
  35. P2 2:32Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Fleury5v4
  36. P2 2:54Shot by Stamkos, saved by Fleury5v4
  37. P2 3:06Shot by Adams, saved by Ellis5v4
  38. P2 3:39Shot by Tyrell, saved by Fleury
  39. P2 4:36Shot by Engelland, saved by Ellis
  40. P2 4:48Shot by Letestu, saved by Ellis
  41. P2 5:09Shot by Kennedy, saved by Ellis
  42. P2 7:40Dupuis: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Clark, Hall, Thompson, Tyrell, Hedman · PIT Asham, Dupuis, Engelland, Goligoski, Letestu

  43. P2 7:47Shot by St. Louis, saved by Fleury5v4
  44. P2 8:18Kunitz: High sticking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Clark, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Malone, Stamkos · PIT Martin, Talbot, Kunitz, Goligoski

  45. P2 8:43Goal by Lecavalier (St. Louis, Stamkos)5v3+24 pts WP

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Lecavalier, Malone, Downie, Stamkos · PIT Adams, Cooke, Orpik

  46. P2 10:52Stamkos: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Clark, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Jones, Stamkos · PIT Rupp, Engelland, Kunitz, Goligoski, Crosby

  47. P2 12:14Shot by St. Louis, saved by Fleury4v5
  48. P2 13:16Vernace: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Jones, Vernace, Downie, Stamkos · PIT Rupp, Orpik, Martin, Kennedy, Letestu

  49. P2 13:50Shot by Bergenheim, saved by Fleury4v5
  50. P2 13:51Shot by Bergenheim, saved by Fleuryother
  51. P2 14:23Shot by Malkin, saved by Ellis4v5
  52. P2 15:12Goligoski: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL St. Louis, Lecavalier, Jones, Lundin, Stamkos · PIT Cooke, Malkin, Goligoski, Crosby, Letestu

  53. P2 17:46Shot by Crosby, saved by Ellis
  54. P2 13:51Malkin: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway (0 min)4v5

    On ice: TBL Clark, Bergenheim, Tyrell, Hedman · PIT Kunitz, Malkin, Goligoski, Crosby, Letestu

  55. P2 18:00Shot by Kunitz, saved by Ellis
  56. P2 18:08Shot by Crosby, saved by Ellis
  57. P2 19:02Shot by Letestu, saved by Ellis
  58. P2 19:03Purcell: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kubina, Bergenheim, Jones, Purcell, Stamkos · PIT Orpik, Malkin, Kennedy, Letestu, Lovejoy

  59. P2 19:59Shot by Goligoski, saved by Ellis4v5
  60. P2 0:00Period end
  61. P3 0:00Period start
  62. P3 1:09Shot by Malkin, saved by Ellis
  63. P3 1:20Kunitz: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Clark, Hall, Purcell, Tyrell, Hedman · PIT Kunitz, Malkin, Goligoski, Crosby, Letang

  64. P3 2:10Shot by St. Louis, saved by Fleury5v4
  65. P3 2:17Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Fleury5v4
  66. P3 3:29Shot by Purcell, saved by Fleury
  67. P3 3:40Shot by Downie, saved by Fleury
  68. P3 4:42Shot by Hall, saved by Fleury
  69. P3 5:38Shot by Hall, saved by Fleury
  70. P3 6:20Shot by Bergenheim, saved by Fleury
  71. P3 6:40Goal by St. Louis (Downie, Stamkos)+30 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kubina, St. Louis, Lundin, Downie, Stamkos · PIT Cooke, Martin, Talbot, Kennedy, Lovejoy

  72. P3 7:05Shot by Asham, saved by Ellis
  73. P3 7:23Shot by Jones, saved by Fleury
  74. P3 8:19Shot by Engelland, saved by Ellis
  75. P3 8:34Hall: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Clark, Hall, Thompson, Tyrell, Hedman · PIT Dupuis, Engelland, Malkin, Goligoski, Letestu

  76. P3 10:22Shot by Kennedy, saved by Ellis4v5
  77. P3 10:24Shot by Rupp, saved by Ellis4v5
  78. P3 13:05Shot by Engelland, saved by Ellis
  79. P3 16:24Shot by Hall, saved by Fleury
  80. P3 16:34Shot by St. Louis, saved by Fleury
  81. P3 17:50Shot by Crosby, saved by Ellis
  82. P3 18:26Shot by Goligoski, saved by Ellis
  83. P3 19:29Goal by St. Louis (Stamkos)5v6+5 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kubina, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Stamkos, Hedman · PIT Kunitz, Malkin, Goligoski, Crosby, Letang, Letestu

  84. P3 19:36Shot by Dupuis, saved by Ellis
  85. P3 0:00Period end
  86. P3 0:00Final