Wed, Oct 27, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
New Jersey Devils 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 110 | 18 | 229 |
| SJS | 317 | 113 | 19 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:57SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:16SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 18:59SJSJoe ThorntonGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Jason Demers · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 3:06NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Matthew Corrente, Henrik Tallinder · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 16:55SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Dany Heatley · Slap, 0.30 xG1–4
- P3 6:47SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Slap, 0.21 xG1–5
- P3 14:22NJDAndy GreenePPAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.31 xG2–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:40SJSScott Nichol: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:04SJSJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:04NJDAdam Mair: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:03SJSNiclas Wallin: Interference2 min
- P1 15:39NJDHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:10SJSJamal Mayers: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:29NJDJacob Josefson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:56NJDMatthew Corrente: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:29SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:29NJDMatthew Corrente: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:05SJSRyane Clowe: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:54SJSDany Heatley: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:22SJSDouglas Murray: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:22NJDMatthew Corrente: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:22NJDMatthew Corrente: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:22NJDMatthew Corrente: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Pelley2:16
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Arnott – Elias – Clarkson3:00
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Mair – Sestito – Pelley2:02
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Josefson2:02
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- White – Taormina5:18
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Corrente6:01
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Magnan – Greene5:28
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Pavelski – Setoguchi8:57
xG 0.77–0.15 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley10:24
xG 0.64–0.10 (87%)attempts 12–7goals 4–0
- Mitchell – McGinn – Couture9:18
xG 0.60–0.07 (90%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McCarthy5:26
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Demers10:45
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Boyle – Murray15:24
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Wallin – Vlasic11:54
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).