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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 7, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Anaheim Ducks 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)

Away

Anaheim Ducks

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.

EDM winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ANA0819112032332
EDM01007215041236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:44ANASaku KoivuAssists: Teemu Selanne, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P3 6:32ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Andy Sutton, Saku Koivu · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P3 10:29EDMRyan JonesAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Tom Gilbert · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P3 13:39EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
  2. 2. ANA Joffrey Lupul scored
  3. 3. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
  4. 4. ANA Teemu Selanne stopped
  5. 5. EDM Taylor Hall scored
  6. 6. ANA Corey Perry stopped
  7. 7. EDM Gilbert Brule stopped
  8. 8. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
  9. 9. EDM Dustin Penner stopped
  10. 10. ANA Saku Koivu stopped
  11. 11. EDM Magnus Paajarvi stopped
  12. 12. ANA Jason Blake stopped
  13. 13. EDM Ryan Jones stopped
  14. 14. ANA Bobby Ryan stopped
  15. 15. EDM Kurtis Foster stopped
  16. 16. ANA Lubomir Visnovsky stopped
  17. 17. EDM Andrew Cogliano stopped
  18. 18. ANA Toni Lydman stopped
  19. 19. EDM Colin Fraser stopped
  20. 20. ANA Cam Fowler scored
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:31ANAPaul Mara: Roughing2 min
  2. P2 6:33ANATodd Marchant: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 11:35EDMJim Vandermeer: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 17:10EDMRyan Whitney: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 0:11EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 0:11ANAPaul Mara: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 11:41ANAAndy Sutton: Interference2 min · PPG
  8. P3 17:31EDMTom Gilbert: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
47% to win53% to win
← ANA attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAEDM
32Shots on goal36
2.5Expected goals4.3
56Shot attempts71
27Faceoffs won30
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
17Hits19
19Blocked shots12
16Giveaways22
6Takeaways12

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Anaheim Ducks

Forward lines

  1. bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake8:43

    xG 0.49–0.41 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0

  2. Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan14:29

    xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0

  3. Marchant – Lupul – McMillan8:40

    xG 0.08–0.62 (11%)attempts 2–14goals 0–1

  4. Parros – Chipchura – Beleskey6:05

    xG 0.08–0.71 (10%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestVisnovsky – Sbisa8:24

    xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1

  2. Lydman – Sutton12:41

    xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0

  3. Visnovsky – Fowler3:11

    xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

Edmonton Oilers

Forward lines

  1. bestPenner – Brule – Cogliano7:50

    xG 0.84–0.17 (83%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0

  2. Fraser – Eberle – Hall2:23

    xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  3. Gagner – Eberle – Hall5:23

    xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1

  4. Jones – Gagner – Paajarvi3:29

    xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestFoster – Smid7:51

    xG 0.77–0.06 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  2. Vandermeer – Whitney13:56

    xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0

  3. Gilbert – Whitney2:14

    xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 4.3 xGANA 2.5 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #299 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.76 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 47% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +37 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.

EDM winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).