Fri, Dec 10, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 19 | 05 | 04 | 0 | 123 |
| DAL | 15 | 011 | 07 | 06 | 1 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:39DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Aaron Gagnon · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 9:03CARJiri TlustyAssists: Troy Bodie, Ryan Carter · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
- 2. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 3. DAL Brad Richards scored
- 4. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 5. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
- 6. CAR Eric Staal stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:52CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:42DALAdam Burish: Interference2 min
- P1 16:08CARErik Cole: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:44CAREric Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:53DALBrian Sutherby: Interference2 min
- P2 14:39DALStephane Robidas: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:50CARTroy Bodie: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:01DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:39DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – LaRose – Staal3:43
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Samsonov – LaRose – Dwyer4:43
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Staal5:13
xG 0.12–0.08 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bodie – Tlusty – Carter7:22
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain7:30
xG 0.63–0.07 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason12:26
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Harrison – White3:33
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Eriksson – Neal9:42
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ott – Segal – Burish8:17
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Sutherby – Gagnon – Wandell5:52
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn8:29
xG 0.09–0.47 (17%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann11:58
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Daley12:06
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen8:15
xG 0.13–0.22 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).