Mon, Jan 10, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 4, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 19 | 112 | 430 |
| COL | 414 | 18 | 04 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58COLPaul StastnyAssists: Milan Hejduk, Kevin Porter · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:52DETJan MursakAssists: Drew Miller, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 8:32COLMatt DucheneAssists: Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 12:28COLKevin PorterAssists: David Jones, Brandon Yip · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P1 14:15COLMatt DucheneAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, David Jones · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P1 18:00DETBrian RafalskiAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 6:51COLDavid JonesGWGAssists: Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–5
- P2 15:30DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
- P3 9:45DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:01DETBrian Rafalski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:13DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P1 14:42COLRyan O'Reilly: Interference2 min
- P1 19:27DETBrian Rafalski: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:35COLGreg Mauldin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:05DETDarren Helm: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:50COLKevin Porter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 13:20DETTodd Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Franzen won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Abdelkader – Mursak7:38
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–1goals 1–0
- Draper – Eaves – Helm5:02
xG 0.70–0.30 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Hudler11:53
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Zetterberg – Franzen10:34
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kindl9:49
xG 0.81–0.14 (85%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson2:41
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Salei – Ericsson2:08
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Fleischmann – Jones – Duchene10:28
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 3–0
- Mauldin – Dupuis – Yip4:14
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Winnik – Galiardi – O'Reilly11:21
xG 0.65–0.90 (42%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Porter – Stastny10:44
xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Wilson15:00
xG 0.76–0.59 (56%)attempts 15–17goals 2–1
- Hunwick – Holos6:17
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hunwick2:37
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).