Fri, Jan 14, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 312 | 06 | 326 |
| OTT | 014 | 07 | 214 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:32CGYDavid MossAssists: Rene Bourque, Anton Babchuk · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 7:55CGYDavid MossAssists: Tim Jackman, Anton Babchuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 19:43CGYAles KotalikPPGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Olli Jokinen · Snap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 8:56OTTNick FolignoUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 19:02OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Nick Foligno, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:56CGYDavid Moss: Boarding2 min
- P1 9:49CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:24OTTMatt Carkner: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:04CGYJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
- P2 12:56OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P2 15:19CGYAdam Pardy: Interference2 min
- P2 17:25CGYAnton Babchuk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:39OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:39OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:39CGYAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:21OTTMatt Carkner: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:58OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58CGYCurtis Glencross: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Jackman – Moss3:45
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kotalik – Bourque – Backlund5:11
xG 0.05–0.11 (34%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay9:09
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Hagman – Stajan – Glencross8:55
xG 0.01–0.36 (3%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBabchuk – Mikkelson6:19
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Sarich – Pardy15:40
xG 0.88–0.64 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano13:35
xG 0.11–0.57 (16%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Michalek – Winchester4:52
xG 0.36–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly5:50
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Fisher – Shannon – Foligno2:31
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Regin – Smith – Winchester5:45
xG 0.02–0.08 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Lee10:00
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Phillips2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kuba – Carkner9:26
xG 0.35–0.36 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).