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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 14, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Calgary Flames 3, Ottawa Senators 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.

OTT winsCGY wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:19Shot by Bouwmeester, saved by Elliott
  3. P1 2:00Shot by Foligno, saved by Karlsson
  4. P1 2:53Shot by Karlsson, saved by Karlsson
  5. P1 3:25Shot by Phillips, saved by Karlsson
  6. P1 3:51Shot by Bourque, saved by Elliott
  7. P1 3:56Moss: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Carkner, Regin, Smith, Winchester · CGY Morrison, Moss, Babchuk, Bourque, Mikkelson

  8. P1 4:25Shot by Gonchar, saved by Karlsson5v4
  9. P1 5:44Shot by Kuba, saved by Karlsson5v4
  10. P1 6:24Shot by Karlsson, saved by Karlsson
  11. P1 6:25Shot by Neil, saved by Karlsson
  12. P1 7:09Shot by Regin, saved by Karlsson
  13. P1 8:16Shot by Hagman, saved by Elliott
  14. P1 9:17Shot by Michalek, saved by Karlsson
  15. P1 9:43Shot by Ruutu, saved by Karlsson
  16. P1 9:49Bourque: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Ruutu, Neil, Carkner, Kelly · CGY Morrison, Moss, Bouwmeester, Giordano, Bourque

  17. P1 11:14Shot by Gonchar, saved by Karlsson5v4
  18. P1 12:49Shot by Mikkelson, saved by Elliott
  19. P1 13:01Shot by Kotalik, saved by Elliott
  20. P1 13:58Shot by Jackman, saved by Elliott
  21. P1 14:35Shot by Michalek, saved by Karlsson
  22. P1 15:13Shot by Lee, saved by Karlsson
  23. P1 15:34Shot by Kotalik, saved by Elliott
  24. P1 16:26Shot by Foligno, saved by Karlsson
  25. P1 19:19Shot by Jokinen, saved by Elliott
  26. P1 0:00Period end
  27. P2 0:00Period start
  28. P2 0:57Shot by Iginla, saved by Elliott
  29. P2 1:09Shot by Sarich, saved by Elliott
  30. P2 3:24Carkner: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Carkner, Regin, Smith, Winchester · CGY Morrison, Sarich, Jackman, Moss, Pardy

  31. P2 5:32Goal by Moss (Bourque, Babchuk)+24 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Locke, Shannon, Lee, Foligno · CGY Hagman, Moss, Bouwmeester, Babchuk, Bourque

  32. P2 6:03Shot by Foligno, saved by Karlsson
  33. P2 6:29Shot by Foligno, saved by Karlsson
  34. P2 6:32Shot by Kuba, saved by Karlsson
  35. P2 6:59Shot by Kotalik, saved by Elliott
  36. P2 7:26Shot by Kotalik, saved by Elliott
  37. P2 7:55Goal by Moss (Jackman, Babchuk)+15 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Ruutu, Neil, Carkner, Kelly · CGY Morrison, Jackman, Moss, Babchuk, Pardy

  38. P2 8:03Shot by Iginla, saved by Elliott
  39. P2 9:04Bouwmeester: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Phillips, Fisher, Michalek, Karlsson · CGY Iginla, Tanguay, Bouwmeester, Stajan, Giordano

  40. P2 9:08Shot by Karlsson, saved by Karlsson5v4
  41. P2 9:23Shot by Morrison, saved by Elliott5v4
  42. P2 12:14Shot by Backlund, saved by Elliott
  43. P2 12:55Shot by Sarich, saved by Elliott
  44. P2 12:56Neil: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Ruutu, Neil, Kelly, Karlsson · CGY Sarich, Jokinen, Tanguay, Kotalik, Pardy

  45. P2 14:15Shot by Moss, saved by Elliott4v5
  46. P2 15:06Shot by Phillips, saved by Karlsson
  47. P2 15:19Pardy: Interference (2 min)6v5

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Phillips, Locke, Shannon, Foligno, Winchester · CGY Kotalik, Hagman, Bouwmeester, Stajan, Pardy

  48. P2 17:05Shot by Kuba, saved by Karlsson5v4
  49. P2 17:12Shot by Smith, saved by Karlsson5v4
  50. P2 17:25Babchuk: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Kuba, Lee, Foligno, Smith, Winchester · CGY Morrison, Sarich, Babchuk, Glencross, Pardy

  51. P2 19:39Neil: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Ruutu, Neil, Carkner, Kelly · CGY Morrison, Iginla, Sarich, Glencross, Pardy

  52. P2 19:39Neil: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Ruutu, Neil, Carkner, Kelly · CGY Morrison, Iginla, Sarich, Glencross, Pardy

  53. P2 19:39Pardy: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Ruutu, Neil, Carkner, Kelly · CGY Morrison, Iginla, Sarich, Glencross, Pardy

  54. P2 19:43Goal by Kotalik (Iginla, Jokinen)4v5+5 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Carkner, Kelly, Winchester · CGY Iginla, Jokinen, Tanguay, Kotalik, Giordano

  55. P2 0:00Period end
  56. P3 0:00Period start
  57. P3 1:32Shot by Fisher, saved by Karlsson
  58. P3 1:36Shot by Kuba, saved by Karlsson
  59. P3 2:17Shot by Regin, saved by Karlsson
  60. P3 2:58Shot by Giordano, saved by Elliott
  61. P3 4:21Carkner: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Fisher, Neil, Carkner, Shannon, Foligno · CGY Hagman, Bouwmeester, Stajan, Giordano, Glencross

  62. P3 5:21Shot by Babchuk, saved by Elliott4v5
  63. P3 8:56Goal by Foligno, unassisted+3 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Fisher, Shannon, Foligno, Karlsson · CGY Iginla, Jokinen, Tanguay, Bouwmeester, Giordano

  64. P3 10:50Shot by Tanguay, saved by Elliott
  65. P3 10:59Shot by Fisher, saved by Karlsson
  66. P3 11:10Shot by Jokinen, saved by Elliott
  67. P3 11:16Shot by Jokinen, saved by Elliott
  68. P3 11:25Shot by Karlsson, saved by Karlsson
  69. P3 11:30Shot by Winchester, saved by Karlsson
  70. P3 11:31Shot by Winchester, saved by Karlsson
  71. P3 12:13Shot by Lee, saved by Karlsson
  72. P3 12:41Shot by Smith, saved by Karlsson
  73. P3 13:38Shot by Winchester, saved by Karlsson
  74. P3 16:32Shot by Backlund, saved by Elliott
  75. P3 19:02Goal by Michalek (Foligno, Karlsson)6v5+4 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Michalek, Foligno, Winchester, Karlsson · CGY Iginla, Jokinen, Tanguay, Bouwmeester, Giordano

  76. P3 19:25Shot by Michalek, saved by Karlsson6v5
  77. P3 19:57Shot by Fisher, saved by Karlsson6v5
  78. P3 19:58Alfredsson: Roughing (2 min)6v5

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Fisher, Michalek, Foligno, Karlsson · CGY Morrison, Moss, Bouwmeester, Giordano, Glencross

  79. P3 19:58Alfredsson: Roughing (2 min)6v5

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Fisher, Michalek, Foligno, Karlsson · CGY Morrison, Moss, Bouwmeester, Giordano, Glencross

  80. P3 19:58Glencross: Roughing (2 min)6v5

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Fisher, Michalek, Foligno, Karlsson · CGY Morrison, Moss, Bouwmeester, Giordano, Glencross

  81. P3 0:00Period end
  82. P3 0:00Final