Mon, Jan 24, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 014 | 310 | 430 |
| CAR | 15 | 115 | 48 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:16CARJoe CorvoPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Tuomo Ruutu · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 19:51TORTomas KaberleAssists: Phil Kessel, Joey Crabb · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 11:16CARJamie McBainAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 1:49CARBrandon SutterAssists: Ian White, Zach Boychuk · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 3:18TORTim BrentAssists: Luke Schenn, Francois Beauchemin · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 4:29TORTim BrentSHAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Mike Brown · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 8:55CARBrandon SutterAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 11:02CARJeff SkinnerPPGWGAssists: Joe Corvo, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 14:15TORMike BrownPPAssists: Tim Brent, Carl Gunnarsson · Tip-in, 0.20 xG4–5
- P3 19:13CARErik ColeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–6
Penalties (20)
- P1 5:39TORTomas Kaberle: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:21TORCarl Gunnarsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:19CARChad LaRose: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:19TORClarke MacArthur: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:51CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00TORMikhail Grabovski: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00CARTim Gleason: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00TORNikolay Kulemin: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:58TORTomas Kaberle: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:22CARIan White: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:25CARJeff Skinner: Holding2 min
- P2 16:00CARErik Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 19:16TORColby Armstrong: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:42TORJoey Crabb: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:53TORFredrik Sjostrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 12:21CARJay Harrison: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:41TORFredrik Sjostrom: Holding2 min
- P3 16:26TORFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyce won the faceoff against Ruutu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSjostrom – Brent – Brown3:49
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Crabb – Kessel – Bozak5:50
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kessel3:43
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg6:32
xG 0.09–0.39 (19%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Phaneuf9:45
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson4:19
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Schenn10:09
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Tlusty – Sutter7:31
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Cole – Jokinen – Staal2:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Bodie – Carter2:52
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Staal – Boychuk5:17
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – White4:29
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Pitkanen – White4:55
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Corvo – Harrison5:41
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).