Mon, Feb 7, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Atlanta Thrashers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 218 | 17 | 19 | 434 |
| TOR | 011 | 310 | 211 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39ATLEvander KanePPAssists: Bryan Little, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 16:14ATLDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Zach Bogosian, Rich Peverley · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 1:21TORDion PhaneufAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 4:06TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Tomas Kaberle · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 4:45ATLNik AntropovAssists: Anthony Stewart · Snap, 0.39 xG3–2
- P2 15:37TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Kris Versteeg · Deflected, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 4:17TORNikolay KuleminUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 9:28TORTim BrentGWGAssists: Joey Crabb, Colby Armstrong · Snap, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 11:01ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Rich Peverley, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.18 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:04TORPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:34TORMike Komisarek: Interference2 min
- P1 10:29ATLAndrew Ladd: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:57TORKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:18TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:54TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:58TORMike Komisarek: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:03ATLTim Stapleton: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:07ATLChris Thorburn: Delaying game2 min
- P2 10:20TORMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:22ATLRich Peverley: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00ATLDustin Byfuglien: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Stewart – Kane8:50
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Ladd – Bergfors – Little6:00
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Little3:39
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Bergfors – Burmistrov2:09
xG 0.02–0.04 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Byfuglien14:35
xG 0.59–0.31 (65%)attempts 19–18goals 0–2
- Hainsey – Bogosian12:38
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Sopel – Kulda7:06
xG 0.12–0.52 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestArmstrong – Crabb – Brent2:44
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Grabovski – Kessel – Kulemin9:50
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Rosehill2:06
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Crabb – Boyce2:19
xG 0.00–0.02 (10%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn14:14
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Schenn2:01
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Schenn2:32
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).