Tue, Feb 8, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 7, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 15 | 512 | 728 |
| TBL | 113 | 211 | 110 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36TBLSean BergenheimAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:43BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:58TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 11:24TBLSean BergenheimAssists: Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 18:10BUFThomas VanekAssists: Mike Weber · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 4:26BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Tyler Ennis · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 10:14BUFTim ConnollyAssists: Tyler Ennis · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 11:01BUFThomas VanekGWGAssists: Cody McCormick · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 11:56BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Shaone Morrisonn, Mike Weber · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–3
- P3 13:27BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Jordan Leopold, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.04 xG7–3
- P3 16:19TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.09 xG7–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 1:46TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:54TBLRyan Malone: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:05BUFTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:45TBLDominic Moore: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:41BUFNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:01BUFJochen Hecht: Elbowing2 min
- P3 4:26BUFTim Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:26TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:26TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:43TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:43BUFDrew Stafford: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:43TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:56BUFJordan Leopold: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:32TBLSean Bergenheim: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:23TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:23BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:17BUFDrew Stafford: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Hecht – Pominville – Gerbe3:06
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McCormick – Gerbe – Byron5:00
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Gaustad12:31
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Connolly – Stafford – Ennis7:21
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Myers10:56
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Leopold – Butler13:59
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 8–19goals 2–0
- Morrisonn – Weber15:37
xG 0.27–0.67 (28%)attempts 8–17goals 3–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos10:30
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell10:41
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 1–3
- Hall – Moore – Tyrell7:53
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Bergenheim – Stamkos3:19
xG 0.15–0.30 (34%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Hedman10:45
xG 0.78–0.20 (79%)attempts 18–7goals 2–2
- Kubina – Jones14:51
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Clark – Bergeron9:51
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 12–10goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).