Wed, Feb 9, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 212 | 07 | 07 | 226 |
| CGY | 116 | 210 | 29 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:40CGYTim JackmanAssists: Niklas Hagman, Robyn Regehr · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:17OTTChris KellyAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Filip Kuba · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 10:21OTTChris CampoliUnassisted · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 13:42CGYOlli JokinenPPAssists: Curtis Glencross, Anton Babchuk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 17:44CGYCurtis GlencrossGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Anton Babchuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 8:36CGYAnton BabchukPPAssists: Robyn Regehr · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 15:38CGYTim JackmanPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Brendan Morrison · Snap, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:41OTTJarkko Ruutu: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:07OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:01CGYMark Giordano: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 0:00OTTAlex Kovalev: Misconduct10 min
- P2 1:39CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:11OTTBobby Butler: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 7:24OTTJarkko Ruutu: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:06OTTJason Spezza: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:22CGYCory Sarich: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:00OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CGYBrendan Mikkelson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Regin – Smith3:57
xG 0.57–0.03 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly9:11
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Shannon9:19
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Fisher – Foligno – Butler7:30
xG 0.15–0.62 (20%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Campoli14:27
xG 1.19–0.42 (74%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Phillips – Karlsson11:48
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Kuba – Carkner8:58
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHagman – Jackman – Stajan6:30
xG 0.63–0.01 (99%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Backlund – Bouma2:01
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Morrison – Iginla – Bourque11:33
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Hagman – Stajan2:24
xG 0.05–0.17 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Mikkelson2:32
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester13:34
xG 0.66–0.81 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Sarich – Giordano15:20
xG 0.27–0.47 (36%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).