Mon, Feb 14, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 9, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 513 | 07 | 413 | 933 |
| COL | 07 | 19 | 07 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18CGYDavid MossAssists: Robyn Regehr, Olli Jokinen · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 5:57CGYAnton BabchukPPGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 11:14CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Rene Bourque, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P1 12:41CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Olli Jokinen, David Moss · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
- P1 17:01CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Curtis Glencross, David Moss · Backhand, 0.04 xG5–0
- P2 11:09COLDaniel WinnikPPAssists: Kevin Porter, Matt Hunwick · Deflected, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 0:40CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Robyn Regehr, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–1
- P3 2:57CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Tom Kostopoulos, David Moss · Wrist, 0.04 xG7–1
- P3 9:16CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Mikael Backlund, Steve Staios · Wrist, 0.15 xG8–1
- P3 18:55CGYMatt StajanSHAssists: Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.11 xG9–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:56COLCody McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:50COLChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00COLPhilippe Dupuis: Kneeing5 min
- P1 0:00COLPhilippe Dupuis: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 9:12CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 6:46CGYCory Sarich: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:16COLRyan Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:08CGYDavid Moss: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKostopoulos – Moss – Glencross2:12
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Hagman – Backlund3:40
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hagman – Stajan – Bourque4:28
xG 0.17–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross4:39
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Babchuk11:41
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Staios – Regehr2:03
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Sarich – Giordano12:01
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Yip – McLeod2:57
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Stewart8:20
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Hejduk – Porter – Duchene3:57
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Hunwick2:25
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wilson – Shattenkirk2:15
xG 0.01–0.02 (41%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Shattenkirk13:59
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 11–8goals 0–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).