Wed, Feb 16, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 110 | 115 | 230 |
| BUF | 09 | 08 | 17 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:36TORPhil KesselAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 8:29TORJoey CrabbSHGWGAssists: Tim Brent · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 10:20BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Drew Stafford, Chris Butler · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:36TORTim Brent: Interference2 min
- P1 14:22TORJoffrey Lupul: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:27TORMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:09BUFTim Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:09BUFTim Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:09TORJoffrey Lupul: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:44BUFNathan Gerbe: Interference2 min
- P3 5:10BUFPaul Gaustad: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:49TORCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak12:19
xG 0.69–0.35 (67%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:43
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Crabb – Brent – Rosehill5:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Boyce – Hanson10:08
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Aulie16:37
xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 22–8goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Schenn15:23
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson8:23
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGrier – Gaustad – Gerbe2:05
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Grier – Gaustad – McCormick6:44
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Kaleta – Gerbe4:07
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Ennis2:58
xG 0.04–0.08 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Butler4:45
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Butler – Myers10:40
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Morrisonn – Weber10:34
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).