Wed, Feb 23, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Atlanta Thrashers 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 010 | 118 | 013 | 141 |
| BUF | 110 | 218 | 111 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13BUFTyler MyersUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 5:31ATLAndrew LaddPPAssists: Bryan Little, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 18:52BUFPaul GaustadGWGAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Mike Weber · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 19:22BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 1:54BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Jochen Hecht, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:06ATLDustin Byfuglien: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:35BUFJason Pominville: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:57ATLToby Enstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:18BUFShaone Morrisonn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:22BUFPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:22ATLMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:39ATLChris Thorburn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:08BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:08ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:10BUFChris Butler: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:04BUFNathan Gerbe: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hecht won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- Boulton – Stapleton – Machacek6:23
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Rissmiller – Bergfors8:39
xG 0.20–0.64 (24%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:07
xG 0.39–0.97 (29%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane11:08
xG 0.52–1.16 (31%)attempts 10–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian14:11
xG 0.59–0.50 (54%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian2:09
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Oduya – Stuart11:28
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Stafford – Ennis4:12
xG 1.02–0.06 (95%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Connolly – Pominville – Vanek4:55
xG 0.77–0.13 (85%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe9:56
xG 0.73–0.12 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick7:13
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontador – Butler7:31
xG 1.21–0.08 (94%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Leopold – Myers7:13
xG 0.90–0.17 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Morrisonn – Weber13:58
xG 1.07–0.56 (66%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).