Thu, Mar 3, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 117 | 17 | 333 |
| PHI | 19 | 111 | 010 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:49PHIKris VersteegAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:10TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:07PHIKris VersteegAssists: Mike Richards, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 19:49TORDion PhaneufAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- P3 15:30TORDarryl BoyceGWGAssists: Colby Armstrong, Dion Phaneuf · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:23PHIVille Leino: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:04TORCarl Gunnarsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:39PHIAndrej Meszaros: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:47PHIAndrej Meszaros: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:26PHISean O'Donnell: Holding2 min
- P2 1:41TORKeith Aulie: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:41PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:31PHIAndrej Meszaros: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:56TORPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:41PHINikolay Zherdev: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:00TORTyler Bozak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:17PHIVille Leino: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHIScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Holmstrom won the faceoff against Boyce
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestArmstrong – Crabb – Boyce9:44
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin8:21
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Brown5:45
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak9:50
xG 0.06–0.72 (7%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAulie – Schenn4:10
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson3:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Lebda2:07
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Giroux – van Riemsdyk9:27
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino10:03
xG 0.89–0.67 (57%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Richards – Versteeg – Nodl5:02
xG 0.25–0.26 (50%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Shelley – Betts – Holmstrom2:57
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle8:05
xG 1.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 19–1goals 1–0
- Coburn – Carle3:08
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:12
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).