Fri, Mar 11, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 18 | 04 | 222 |
| TBL | 06 | 09 | 120 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:35OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Ryan Shannon, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 0:53OTTBobby ButlerGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 2:56TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:06OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:49TBLNate Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:09TBLVincent Lecavalier: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 1:39TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:40TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:20TBLAdam Hall: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:15OTTNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:15OTTJesse Winchester: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:08TBLNate Thompson: Elbowing2 min
- P3 12:28OTTBobby Butler: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:46OTTBobby Butler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Shannon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestLessard – Potulny – Winchester2:46
xG 0.09–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Svatos – Shannon – Condra7:28
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Smith7:07
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler8:31
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson9:22
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Smith8:08
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Phillips – Lee13:09
xG 0.19–0.27 (42%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos12:37
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Gagne – Moore – Purcell5:50
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Jones – Tyrell2:08
xG 0.03–0.09 (27%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hall – Bergenheim – Thompson3:55
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Brewer8:58
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Hedman5:20
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Lundin6:17
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).