Mon, Mar 14, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 310 | 213 | 636 |
| TOR | 07 | 212 | 013 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:53TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Teddy Purcell, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 5:12TORDion PhaneufAssists: Tim Brent, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:25TBLMattias RitolaAssists: Adam Hall, Nate Thompson · Snap, 0.35 xG2–1
- P2 12:34TBLMattias RitolaGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 14:37TORNikolay KuleminUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 18:53TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Simon Gagne, Brett Clark · Tip-in, 0.28 xG4–2
- P3 8:47TBLDominic MooreAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.16 xG5–2
- P3 14:32TBLMike LundinAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.02 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:41TBLSean Bergenheim: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:41TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:23TBLMike Lundin: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:27TBLSean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:27TORMikhail Grabovski: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:58TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
- P2 15:18TBLMattias Ohlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Thompson – Ritola7:18
xG 1.09–0.24 (82%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell5:46
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos5:53
xG 0.12–0.02 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Gagne – Moore – Purcell5:09
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Clark11:59
xG 1.33–0.27 (83%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Ohlund – Hedman4:14
xG 0.44–0.06 (88%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Clark – Brewer2:20
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Sjostrom – Brent – Brown5:26
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Crabb – Boyce – Brown2:24
xG 0.02–0.05 (26%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:45
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Armstrong – Crabb – Boyce6:06
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAulie – Schenn2:30
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson4:39
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Aulie2:03
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).