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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 19, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Atlanta Thrashers 2, Buffalo Sabres 8

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.

BUF winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL11011209231
BUF3112839828

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:24BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tim Connolly, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:06ATLChris ThorburnUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P1 11:56BUFMark MancariPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Nathan Gerbe · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P1 15:09BUFRob NiedermayerGWGAssists: Chris Butler, Mike Weber · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–3
  5. P2 4:44ATLAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Anthony Stewart, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P2 11:11BUFNathan GerbeAssists: Mark Mancari, Mike Weber · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
  7. P2 13:01BUFTyler EnnisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
  8. P3 3:27BUFBrad BoyesPPAssists: Mark Mancari, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–6
  9. P3 16:52BUFRob NiedermayerAssists: Tyler Myers, Mike Grier · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–7
  10. P3 17:20BUFTim ConnollyPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–8
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 7:02BUFJordan Leopold: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
  2. P1 8:53ATLAnthony Stewart: Holding2 min
  3. P1 9:52ATLAndrew Ladd: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  4. P1 18:12ATLZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 19:34BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 19:46BUFMark Mancari: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 1:55ATLRadek Dvorak: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P3 5:24ATLEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 5:24BUFNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 7:00ATLBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 7:26BUFThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 16:35BUFTyler Ennis: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 16:35ATLEvander Kane: Roughing2 min · PPG
  14. P3 16:35BUFTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
  15. P3 16:35ATLEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 16:52ATLRob Schremp: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 16:52ATLDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min
  18. P3 19:40BUFSteve Montador: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
47% to win53% to win
← ATL attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Connolly won the faceoff against Little
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLBUF
31Shots on goal28
2.7Expected goals4.1
58Shot attempts45
24Faceoffs won35
4Power plays7
30Penalty minutes14
19Hits14
7Blocked shots10
13Giveaways12
2Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Atlanta Thrashers

Forward lines

  1. bestDvorak – Stapleton – Kane8:41

    xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  2. Antropov – Thorburn – Schremp4:07

    xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  3. Boulton – Schremp – Burmistrov2:47

    xG 0.08–0.02 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  4. Antropov – Thorburn – Stewart2:40

    xG 0.06–0.07 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestOduya – Bogosian4:48

    xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  2. Hainsey – Byfuglien8:56

    xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1

  3. Enstrom – Byfuglien6:48

    xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestGaustad – Mancari – Gerbe9:44

    xG 1.06–0.09 (92%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0

  2. Connolly – Pominville – Vanek9:24

    xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1

  3. Boyes – Stafford – Ennis8:31

    xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0

  4. Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick8:58

    xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 2–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestButler – Weber13:13

    xG 1.58–0.54 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1

  2. Sekera – Myers11:32

    xG 0.91–0.28 (77%)attempts 8–11goals 3–0

  3. Sekera – Weber2:22

    xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 4.1 xGATL 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 53/100 · #553 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.16 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.

BUF winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).