Sat, Mar 19, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 19 | 010 | 05 | 237 |
| OTT | 03 | 09 | 218 | 14 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:32TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 7:42TBLDana TyrellAssists: Sean Bergenheim · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 12:27OTTRyan ShannonSHAssists: Erik Condra, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 16:05OTTNick FolignoAssists: Zack Smith, Chris Neil · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 3:28OTTJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:59OTTBobby Butler: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:47OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P2 8:14TBLMike Lundin: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:45TBLEric Brewer: Elbowing2 min
- P3 10:41OTTMarek Svatos: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Moore – Stamkos8:28
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Hall – Bergenheim – Tyrell4:18
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Moore – Bergenheim – Tyrell3:20
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Thompson – Purcell10:54
xG 0.94–0.95 (50%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Lundin11:14
xG 0.92–0.66 (58%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Ohlund – Clark9:36
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Brewer2:22
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Foligno – Smith8:00
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 13–2goals 1–1
- Shannon – Condra – Winchester2:10
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Svatos – Shannon – Condra5:15
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler10:04
xG 0.50–0.84 (37%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson14:04
xG 1.20–0.54 (69%)attempts 24–14goals 1–1
- Kuba – Hale2:16
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hale – Karlsson4:00
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).