Tue, Mar 22, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 018 | 110 | 339 |
| CAR | 27 | 111 | 16 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56OTTColin GreeningAssists: Jason Spezza, Bobby Butler · Backhand, 0.42 xG1–0
- P1 13:40OTTMarek SvatosAssists: Erik Condra, David Hale · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P1 14:07CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 14:32CARChad LaRoseAssists: Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 18:17CARChad LaRoseAssists: Brandon Sutter, Tim Gleason · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 6:04CARCory StillmanGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 14:16OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Jason Spezza, Nick Foligno · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:02OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P1 3:58CARCory Stillman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:32CARJoe Corvo: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:51OTTFilip Kuba: Interference2 min
- P1 19:54CARJoni Pitkanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:33OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:33OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:36CARBryan Allen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Foligno – Butler5:47
xG 0.65–0.11 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Greening – Butler3:57
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Svatos – Shannon – Condra8:09
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Neil – Greening – Winchester7:31
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHale – Karlsson12:43
xG 1.15–0.19 (86%)attempts 23–3goals 1–1
- Kuba – Wiercioch6:59
xG 0.64–0.51 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 1–3
- Phillips – Lee13:36
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Cole – Staal9:56
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Samson2:54
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman7:25
xG 0.20–0.22 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Stillman – Cole – Dwyer2:56
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Allen – Joslin11:22
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- Corvo – Pitkanen8:57
xG 0.16–0.48 (25%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Harrison – Pitkanen5:43
xG 0.05–0.45 (10%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).