Fri, Mar 25, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 116 | 18 | 215 | 439 |
| TBL | 17 | 03 | 211 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11TBLSimon GagnePPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 12:52CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 8:23CARErik ColePPAssists: Cory Stillman, Eric Staal · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 6:50CARErik ColeUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 12:20CAREric StaalPPGWGAssists: Joe Corvo, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–1
- P3 13:17TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 14:09TBLSimon GagnePPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:13TBLVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:49CARJeff Skinner: Holding2 min
- P1 5:53CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 9:37CARJay Harrison: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:37TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:56TBLDwayne Roloson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:52TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:32TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:52CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:17TBLSean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:56TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:56TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:00CARDerek Joslin: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 17:20CARBryan Allen: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Tlusty – Samson5:02
xG 0.40–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner9:13
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman10:32
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Stillman – Cole – Staal8:48
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Joslin10:54
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Gleason – Harrison12:25
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Corvo – Pitkanen12:06
xG 0.34–0.52 (40%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos2:37
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Gagne – Moore – Bergenheim2:08
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos8:40
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell2:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (83%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Clark8:02
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Brewer – Lundin10:41
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Kubina – Hedman13:43
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).