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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 25, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.

TBL winsCAR wins

Who was on the ice

Model-based

Line matchups and every shift of the game.

Line matchups

TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against CAR's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.

LaRose–Sutter–BowmanRuutu–Jokinen–SkinnerStillman–Cole–StaalDwyer–Tlusty–SamsonGleason–HarrisonCorvo–PitkanenAllen–JoslinPitkanen–JoslinCorvo–Allen
St. Louis–Downie–Stamkos3:510.04–0.102:410.00–0.094:530.04–0.192:470.23–0.030:320.00–0.02
Lecavalier–Thompson–Purcell0:450.00–0.070:440.00–0.000:450.00–0.021:300.00–0.090:380.00–0.000:360.01–0.02
St. Louis–Lecavalier–Stamkos0:580.08–0.000:380.00–0.000:380.20–0.001:320.08–0.000:570.20–0.00
Hall–Jones–Tyrell0:450.00–0.071:070.00–0.291:140.00–0.290:470.00–0.07
Lecavalier–Gagne–Purcell1:390.01–0.001:040.01–0.000:410.00–0.00
Gagne–Moore–Bergenheim1:080.00–0.000:310.00–0.000:410.07–0.00
Gagne–Thompson–Purcell0:550.00–0.021:070.00–0.03
Thompson–Jones–Tyrell0:310.00–0.000:330.00–0.021:040.00–0.02
Hall–Moore–Bergenheim0:440.00–0.100:490.00–0.10
Gagne–Moore–Jones0:530.00–0.020:410.00–0.00
Kubina–Hedman4:440.08–0.234:230.02–0.161:430.05–0.041:060.00–0.004:210.09–0.143:390.05–0.054:190.07–0.020:480.00–0.09
Brewer–Lundin1:330.02–0.076:000.22–0.331:360.03–0.024:010.09–0.134:530.22–0.291:130.00–0.04
Ohlund–Clark1:490.00–0.002:320.03–0.001:320.00–0.322:010.00–0.002:170.26–0.002:110.01–0.320:330.00–0.000:310.00–0.02
Ohlund–Lundin0:470.00–0.06
Clark–Brewer0:370.00–0.00
Shift chart

Every shift, one row per player.

P1P2P3EndLecavalier FSt. Louis FStamkos FHall FThompson FBergenheim FMoore FTyrell FPurcell FGagne FDownie FJones FKubina DHedman DBrewer DOhlund DLundin DClark DRoloson GSutter FBowman FLaRose FStaal FCole FStillman FRuutu FJokinen FSkinner FDwyer FSamson FTlusty FGleason DHarrison DPitkanen DCorvo DJoslin DAllen DWard G
TBLCARFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.

Shift totals

Joe CorvoCAR3225:250:481:4676
Joni PitkanenCAR2722:500:511:5675
Martin St. LouisTBL2221:350:592:4053
Tim GleasonCAR3121:350:421:1345
Victor HedmanTBL3021:180:431:2075
Eric StaalCAR2421:040:531:4774
Eric BrewerTBL2820:570:451:4725
Mike LundinTBL2820:000:431:2134
Steven StamkosTBL2219:530:542:4054
Erik ColeCAR2619:360:451:2474
Vincent LecavalierTBL2019:280:582:4043
Derek JoslinCAR2919:070:401:3334
Pavel KubinaTBL2418:130:461:2053
Jussi JokinenCAR2618:130:421:1944
Cory StillmanCAR2317:160:451:3173
Simon GagneTBL1916:430:531:5752
Dominic MooreTBL2916:430:351:1433
Mattias OhlundTBL2416:400:421:4728
Bryan AllenCAR2216:340:451:3323
Brett ClarkTBL2316:290:431:1944
Brandon SutterCAR2616:230:381:0516
Chad LaRoseCAR2416:130:411:1415
Nate ThompsonTBL2416:010:401:2835
Jay HarrisonCAR2415:570:401:1334
Jeff SkinnerCAR2214:270:391:1952
Teddy PurcellTBL1712:390:451:2133
Tuomo RuutuCAR2112:280:361:0253
Adam HallTBL2312:260:320:5626
Steve DownieTBL1512:250:501:2934
Drayson BowmanCAR1912:070:381:1413
Dana TyrellTBL1912:020:380:5843
Patrick DwyerCAR179:390:340:5624
Sean BergenheimTBL179:130:331:1314
Jiri TlustyCAR96:060:410:5920
Blair JonesTBL95:590:401:0010
Jerome SamsonCAR85:320:421:0200