Sat, Mar 26, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 27 | 112 | 113 | 432 |
| CAR | 210 | 012 | 013 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:07CAREric StaalPPAssists: Cory Stillman, Jamie McBain · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 13:56TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 17:36TBLSimon GagneUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 19:09CARErik ColeAssists: Cory Stillman, Bryan Allen · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:53TBLDominic MoorePPGWGAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 19:11TBLSimon GagneENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:18TBLSteve Downie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:53TBLNate Thompson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:27TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:28CARErik Cole: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 2:38CARDrayson Bowman: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:13CARBrandon Sutter: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:13CARBrandon Sutter: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:13TBLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:13TBLEric Brewer: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:55TBLDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:55CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Thompson2:52
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Gagne – Thompson – Purcell3:01
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Moore – Bergenheim – Tyrell2:17
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hall – Moore – Tyrell2:18
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Hedman6:31
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Hedman6:23
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Brewer – Lundin14:10
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Sutter – Bowman12:08
xG 0.89–0.25 (78%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Samson4:23
xG 0.06–0.05 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stillman – Cole – Staal13:36
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner11:52
xG 0.21–0.71 (23%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJoslin – McBain10:45
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Gleason – Harrison13:10
xG 0.86–0.67 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Corvo – Allen13:07
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).