Tue, Mar 29, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 214 | 08 | 331 |
| TOR | 211 | 210 | 014 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34TORDion PhaneufAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Nikolay Kulemin · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 18:46TORDarryl BoyceAssists: Nazem Kadri, Joey Crabb · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 19:48BUFThomas VanekAssists: Jochen Hecht, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 5:06TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 6:25BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tim Connolly, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 6:55BUFRob NiedermayerAssists: Steve Montador, Cody McCormick · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 13:35TORMikhail GrabovskiGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Clarke MacArthur · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P2 2:08BUFMike Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:59TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:59BUFPaul Gaustad: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:59BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P3 4:31BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:31TORMike Komisarek: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:01BUFDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:13BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:32TORDarryl Boyce: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:05BUFMike Weber: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:57TORTyler Bozak: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gaustad – Mancari – Gerbe4:59
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Boyes – Stafford – Ennis5:22
xG 0.02–0.06 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Connolly – Pominville – Vanek12:55
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Hecht – Stafford – Ennis4:47
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Myers18:40
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Montador – Butler16:43
xG 0.60–0.71 (46%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Morrisonn – Weber7:33
xG 0.18–0.71 (20%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestCrabb – Boyce – Kadri10:20
xG 0.82–0.26 (76%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak11:37
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:36
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Brent – Rosehill – Brown4:46
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Aulie17:04
xG 0.95–0.43 (69%)attempts 16–22goals 2–1
- Komisarek – Lashoff7:54
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson3:06
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).