Sat, Oct 15, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 07 | 29 | 05 | 0 | 230 |
| FLA | 114 | 015 | 19 | 00 | 1 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:48FLAEd JovanovskiPPAssists: Tomas Kopecky, David Booth · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 9:43TBLMarc-Andre BergeronAssists: Dominic Moore · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 17:05FLAKris VersteegPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 17:44TBLMarc-Andre BergeronAssists: Pavel Kubina, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Kris Versteeg stopped
- 2. TBL Martin St. Louis stopped
- 3. FLA Marcel Goc scored
- 4. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 5. FLA Tomas Fleischmann stopped
- 6. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:18FLARyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:32TBLMattias Ritola: Elbowing2 min
- P1 10:48TBLDominic Moore: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 12:24TBLPavel Kubina: Interference2 min
- P1 15:14TBLVincent Lecavalier: Interference2 min
- P1 19:08FLAEd Jovanovski: Interference2 min
- P2 12:16TBLBrett Clark: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:16FLAErik Gudbranson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:16FLAErik Gudbranson: Instigator2 min
- P2 12:16FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:16FLAErik Gudbranson: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:16TBLSteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:16TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:16TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:40TBLDominic Moore: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:42TBLPavel Kubina: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos7:44
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Hall – Jones – Pyatt2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Stamkos – Connolly6:04
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Malone – Moore – Thompson4:30
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bergeron – Gilroy11:21
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Clark – Kubina12:01
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Brewer – Hedman14:38
xG 0.17–0.56 (24%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGoc – Bergenheim – Skille11:52
xG 0.50–0.39 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Upshall – Booth8:24
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg11:24
xG 0.33–0.29 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Bradley – Matthias – Carter5:45
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Garrison11:01
xG 0.52–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson5:21
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Campbell4:16
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).