Thu, Oct 20, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
New York Islanders 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 04 | 17 | 117 |
| TBL | 114 | 19 | 27 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:32TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P2 15:14TBLVincent LecavalierGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 5:25TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 7:55NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Mark Streit, Brian Rolston · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 16:59TBLBrett ClarkAssists: Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:08NYIJay Pandolfo: Interference2 min
- P1 11:13TBLBrett Connolly: Holding2 min
- P1 15:17NYISteve Staios: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:05NYIMarty Reasoner: Interference2 min
- P3 13:49TBLSteve Downie: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares15:43
xG 0.68–0.67 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Martin2:12
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Rolston – Bailey – Martin4:44
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Rolston – Nielsen – Grabner3:02
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Staios – Streit17:01
xG 0.81–0.81 (50%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Mottau – Eaton13:39
xG 0.28–0.67 (29%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic17:45
xG 0.21–0.82 (20%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Connolly12:13
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Malone – Purcell – Stamkos10:51
xG 0.76–0.38 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Moore – Downie – Jones9:05
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Pyatt10:28
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Kubina15:27
xG 0.83–0.38 (68%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Brewer – Hedman16:12
xG 0.83–0.55 (60%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Gilroy15:30
xG 0.61–0.53 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).