Thu, Oct 27, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 017 | 116 | 110 | 243 |
| BUF | 113 | 16 | 27 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:07BUFBrad BoyesPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 4:51BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Thomas Vanek, Luke Adam · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–2
- P2 12:10CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Antoine Vermette, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 10:51CBJFedor TyutinAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, James Wisniewski · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 14:08BUFPatrick KaletaGWGAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Christian Ehrhoff · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 17:36BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:50CBJCody Bass: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:50BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:04BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:04CBJCody Bass: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 10:04BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:24CBJAaron Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:37BUFAndrej Sekera: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:19BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:19CBJCody Bass: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:35BUFAndrej Sekera: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:22BUFRobyn Regehr: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:49BUFAndrej Sekera: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:09CBJAlexandre Giroux: Interference2 min
- P3 5:16BUFTyler Myers: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:42CBJFedor Tyutin: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Nash – Brassard10:56
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Giroux – Vermette – Umberger7:33
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Johansen5:25
xG 0.28–0.57 (32%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Pahlsson – Bass – Dorsett5:26
xG 0.06–0.49 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Russell11:21
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Clitsome – Russell2:57
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski16:26
xG 0.47–0.61 (44%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – McCormick – Ellis5:48
xG 0.56–0.08 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Adam9:45
xG 0.76–0.32 (70%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Roy – Stafford – Leino9:14
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe9:00
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sekera14:50
xG 0.85–0.37 (69%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Leopold – Gragnani12:12
xG 0.75–0.45 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Regehr – Myers11:56
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).