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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 27, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Buffalo Sabres 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.

BUF winsCBJ wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:15Shot by Vermette, saved by Enroth
  3. P1 0:44Shot by Gerbe, saved by Mason
  4. P1 3:05Shot by Roy, saved by Mason
  5. P1 5:28Shot by Nash, saved by Enroth
  6. P1 6:11Shot by Russell, saved by Enroth
  7. P1 6:16Shot by Umberger, saved by Enroth
  8. P1 6:47Shot by Adam, saved by Mason
  9. P1 7:04Shot by Umberger, saved by Enroth
  10. P1 7:25Shot by Tyutin, saved by Enroth
  11. P1 7:40Shot by Sekera, saved by Mason
  12. P1 7:49Shot by Bass, saved by Enroth
  13. P1 7:50Bass: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: BUF Gaustad, Ehrhoff, Sekera, Kaleta, Gerbe · CBJ MacKenzie, Giroux, Clitsome, Bass, Moore

  14. P1 8:01Shot by Myers, saved by Mason4v4
  15. P1 8:15Shot by Russell, saved by Enroth4v4
  16. P1 7:50Kaleta: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: BUF Gaustad, Ehrhoff, Sekera, Kaleta, Gerbe · CBJ MacKenzie, Giroux, Clitsome, Bass, Moore

  17. P1 9:03Shot by Gerbe, saved by Mason4v4
  18. P1 10:04Kaleta: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Gaustad, Ehrhoff, Sekera, Kaleta, Gerbe · CBJ Tyutin, Nash, Wisniewski, Bass, Brassard

  19. P1 10:04Bass: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Gaustad, Ehrhoff, Sekera, Kaleta, Gerbe · CBJ Tyutin, Nash, Wisniewski, Bass, Brassard

  20. P1 10:04Kaleta: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Gaustad, Ehrhoff, Sekera, Kaleta, Gerbe · CBJ Tyutin, Nash, Wisniewski, Bass, Brassard

  21. P1 10:32Shot by Vermette, saved by Enroth4v5
  22. P1 11:00Shot by Tyutin, saved by Enroth4v5
  23. P1 11:40Shot by Gerbe, saved by Mason4v5
  24. P1 12:23Shot by Ehrhoff, saved by Mason
  25. P1 13:24Johnson: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Leopold, Boyes, Roy, McCormick, Myers · CBJ Johnson, Dorsett, Brassard, Mayorov, Moore

  26. P1 13:59Shot by Gragnani, saved by Mason5v4
  27. P1 14:07Goal by Boyes (Vanek, Pominville)5v4+16 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Boyes, Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Gragnani · CBJ Umberger, Tyutin, Wisniewski, Dorsett

  28. P1 15:15Shot by Russell, saved by Enroth
  29. P1 15:20Shot by Dorsett, saved by Enroth
  30. P1 15:23Shot by Johnson, saved by Enroth
  31. P1 15:37Sekera: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Sekera, Adam · CBJ Vermette, Umberger, Johnson, Russell, Johansen

  32. P1 16:31Shot by Vermette, saved by Enroth4v5
  33. P1 16:42Shot by Clitsome, saved by Enroth4v5
  34. P1 17:36Shot by Johansen, saved by Enroth4v5
  35. P1 17:42Shot by Nash, saved by Enroth
  36. P1 19:17Shot by McCormick, saved by Mason
  37. P1 19:19McCormick: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Regehr, Boyes, McCormick, Ellis, Myers · CBJ MacKenzie, Giroux, Tyutin, Wisniewski, Bass

  38. P1 19:19Bass: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: BUF Regehr, Boyes, McCormick, Ellis, Myers · CBJ MacKenzie, Giroux, Tyutin, Wisniewski, Bass

  39. P1 19:53Shot by Regehr, saved by Mason
  40. P1 19:58Shot by Vanek, saved by Mason
  41. P1 0:00Period end
  42. P2 0:00Period start
  43. P2 1:28Shot by Johnson, saved by Enroth
  44. P2 2:27Shot by Stafford, saved by Mason
  45. P2 4:50Shot by Vanek, saved by Mason
  46. P2 4:51Goal by Pominville (Vanek, Adam)+13 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Sekera, Adam · CBJ Vermette, Umberger, Clitsome, Moore, Johansen

  47. P2 5:26Shot by Vermette, saved by Enroth
  48. P2 5:35Sekera: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Boyes, Ehrhoff, McCormick, Ellis, Sekera · CBJ Pahlsson, Tyutin, Wisniewski, Dorsett, Mayorov

  49. P2 5:44Shot by Wisniewski, saved by Enroth4v5
  50. P2 9:55Shot by Pominville, saved by Mason
  51. P2 10:30Shot by Nash, saved by Enroth
  52. P2 10:46Shot by Nash, saved by Enroth
  53. P2 11:32Shot by Giroux, saved by Enroth
  54. P2 12:10Goal by Prospal (Vermette, Umberger)+13 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Roy, Ehrhoff, Stafford, Gragnani, Leino · CBJ Prospal, Vermette, Umberger, Johnson, Russell

  55. P2 12:26Shot by Ellis, saved by Mason
  56. P2 13:14Shot by Nash, saved by Enroth
  57. P2 13:32Shot by Prospal, saved by Enroth
  58. P2 13:33Shot by Prospal, saved by Enroth
  59. P2 13:58Shot by Tyutin, saved by Enroth
  60. P2 14:09Shot by Wisniewski, saved by Enroth
  61. P2 14:22Regehr: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Regehr, Gaustad, Kaleta, Gerbe, Myers · CBJ Prospal, Tyutin, Nash, Wisniewski, Brassard

  62. P2 14:26Shot by Tyutin, saved by Enroth4v5
  63. P2 17:13Shot by Dorsett, saved by Enroth
  64. P2 18:01Shot by Ellis, saved by Mason
  65. P2 18:10Shot by Giroux, saved by Enroth
  66. P2 18:17Shot by Giroux, saved by Enroth
  67. P2 0:00Period end
  68. P3 0:00Period start
  69. P3 0:29Shot by Stafford, saved by Mason
  70. P3 1:12Shot by Myers, saved by Mason
  71. P3 1:43Shot by Adam, saved by Mason
  72. P3 2:49Sekera: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Boyes, Ehrhoff, McCormick, Ellis, Sekera · CBJ MacKenzie, Clitsome, Mayorov, Moore, Johansen

  73. P3 3:18Shot by Wisniewski, saved by Enroth4v5
  74. P3 3:56Shot by Wisniewski, saved by Enroth4v5
  75. P3 4:09Giroux: Interference (2 min)4v5

    On ice: BUF Leopold, Roy, Pominville, Ehrhoff · CBJ Giroux, Vermette, Umberger, Clitsome, Russell

  76. P3 5:16Myers: High sticking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: BUF Boyes, Pominville, Vanek, Gragnani, Myers · CBJ MacKenzie, Tyutin, Wisniewski, Bass

  77. P3 5:26Shot by Umberger, saved by Enroth4v4
  78. P3 5:32Shot by Umberger, saved by Enroth4v4
  79. P3 7:27Shot by Vermette, saved by Enroth
  80. P3 8:13Shot by Wisniewski, saved by Enroth
  81. P3 9:11Shot by Russell, saved by Enroth
  82. P3 9:16Shot by Moore, saved by Enroth
  83. P3 10:51Goal by Tyutin (Pahlsson, Wisniewski)+31 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Leopold, Pominville, Vanek, Gragnani, Adam · CBJ Pahlsson, Giroux, Umberger, Tyutin, Wisniewski

  84. P3 12:16Shot by Ellis, saved by Mason
  85. P3 14:08Goal by Kaleta (Gerbe, Ehrhoff)+34 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Regehr, Gaustad, Ehrhoff, Kaleta, Gerbe · CBJ Prospal, Johnson, Nash, Russell, Brassard

  86. P3 16:42Tyutin: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Boyes, Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Gragnani · CBJ Prospal, Tyutin, Nash, Wisniewski, Brassard

  87. P3 17:17Shot by Vanek, saved by Mason5v4
  88. P3 17:36Goal by Pominville (Vanek, Boyes)5v4+5 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Boyes, Pominville, Ehrhoff, Vanek, Gragnani · CBJ Pahlsson, Johnson, Clitsome, Dorsett

  89. P3 19:53Shot by Prospal, saved by Enroth5v6
  90. P3 0:00Period end
  91. P3 0:00Final