Wed, Nov 2, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 314 | 05 | 07 | 326 |
| BUF | 08 | 115 | 18 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:43PHISean CouturierAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Andreas Lilja · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 1:56PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Zac Rinaldo · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 6:23PHIScott HartnellGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 7:49BUFAndrej SekeraAssists: Jordan Leopold, Luke Adam · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 8:29BUFLuke AdamAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (17)
- P1 13:05PHIBen Holmstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 1:40PHIJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
- P2 8:27PHIKimmo Timonen: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:24PHIJakub Voracek: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00BUFDerek Roy: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00PHIBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00PHIZac Rinaldo: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
- P2 0:00BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:26PHIClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:26BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:26PHIAndrej Meszaros: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:26BUFPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:26BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:40BUFRobyn Regehr: Elbowing2 min
- P3 19:44PHIAndreas Nodl: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Adam
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Hartnell – Giroux13:18
xG 0.62–0.11 (85%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Couturier8:52
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Shelley – Rinaldo – Holmstrom2:46
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Talbot – Nodl – Simmonds10:15
xG 0.14–0.44 (25%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Meszaros8:28
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Carle – Gustafsson13:38
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Carle – Meszaros2:37
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Stafford – Leino11:57
xG 0.53–0.36 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – McCormick – Ellis3:27
xG 0.04–0.01 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Adam7:47
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe6:34
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Myers14:33
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Regehr – Weber10:58
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Leopold – Ehrhoff13:12
xG 0.19–0.48 (29%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).