Fri, Nov 4, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 1, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 09 | 113 | 130 |
| BUF | 118 | 019 | 17 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Derek Roy, Andrej Sekera · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 1:45BUFNathan GerbeGWGAssists: Marc-Andre Gragnani · Slap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 5:45CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Matt Stajan · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:42CGYCory Sarich: Holding2 min
- P1 16:38CGYLee Stempniak: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:40CGYTom Kostopoulos: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:56BUFDrew Stafford: Holding2 min
- P2 6:48BUFAndrej Sekera: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:43BUFMatt Ellis: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:48BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:48CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Jokinen – Glencross11:29
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Stajan4:11
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stajan – Stempniak3:47
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Moss – Bourque – Horak9:46
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sarich – Giordano8:39
xG 0.30–0.40 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Hannan – Babchuk8:41
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Babchuk – Giordano5:54
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Adam10:11
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Roy – Stafford – Leino11:42
xG 0.27–0.25 (51%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- McCormick – Ellis – Tropp5:51
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Gaustad – Gerbe11:28
xG 0.48–0.55 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Gragnani12:10
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Sekera – Myers13:15
xG 0.65–0.59 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Regehr – Leopold14:43
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).