Sat, Nov 5, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 215 | 010 | 02 | 3 | 333 |
| OTT | 17 | 116 | 03 | 01 | 2 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:41OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Chris Phillips, Craig Anderson · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 10:39BUFDerek RoyAssists: Drew Stafford, Ville Leino · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 12:55BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–1
- P2 14:13OTTErik CondraAssists: Zack Smith · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Milan Michalek scored
- 2. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
- 3. OTT Jason Spezza scored
- 4. BUF Brad Boyes scored
- 5. OTT Erik Karlsson stopped
- 6. BUF Nathan Gerbe stopped
- 7. OTT Nick Foligno stopped
- 8. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 9. OTT Kaspars Daugavins stopped
- 10. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
- 11. OTT Bobby Butler stopped
- 12. BUF Derek Roy scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:02OTTFilip Kuba: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 14:40BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:33OTTSergei Gonchar: Holding2 min
- P3 4:18BUFThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Adam
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Adam9:33
xG 0.74–0.27 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Gaustad – Gerbe11:32
xG 0.83–0.70 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- McCormick – Ellis – Tropp8:22
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Roy – Stafford – Leino14:25
xG 0.57–0.60 (49%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Leopold16:12
xG 0.98–0.50 (67%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Gragnani12:44
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Sekera – Myers16:29
xG 0.67–0.92 (42%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Condra – Smith2:51
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Condra – Winchester – Filatov5:35
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening10:34
xG 0.53–0.38 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Neil – Daugavins – Smith7:57
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips16:24
xG 0.88–0.37 (71%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Kuba – Karlsson19:20
xG 0.91–0.87 (51%)attempts 21–19goals 1–0
- Lee – Cowen13:43
xG 0.12–1.19 (9%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).