Sat, Nov 12, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 210 | 310 | 524 |
| TOR | 18 | 09 | 116 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:18TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 9:11OTTSergei GoncharAssists: Kaspars Daugavins, Zack Smith · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 17:46OTTNick FolignoPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Craig Anderson · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 0:48OTTZack SmithGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 17:10TORJoffrey LupulUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:53OTTNick FolignoENAssists: Jesse Winchester · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
- P3 19:18OTTMilan MichalekENUnassisted · Snap, 0.48 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:16TORJoffrey Lupul: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:16OTTJesse Winchester: Diving2 min
- P1 10:36TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:36OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:52OTTStephane Da Costa: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:49OTTJared Cowen: Interference2 min
- P2 9:57OTTBrian Lee: Interference2 min
- P2 16:17TORTyler Bozak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:19TORPhilippe Dupuis: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:25OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P3 8:41OTTChris Phillips: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Da Costa3:31
xG 0.03–0.03 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Konopka – Winchester – Butler2:38
xG 0.01–0.02 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith8:46
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening9:27
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lee – Cowen9:41
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips12:59
xG 0.36–0.62 (37%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson15:24
xG 0.27–0.88 (24%)attempts 15–25goals 1–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak12:29
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Lombardi – Steckel – Frattin5:26
xG 0.27–0.06 (83%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Crabb – Dupuis – Brown6:11
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin8:31
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Phaneuf2:17
xG 0.88–0.02 (98%)attempts 11–1goals 1–1
- Liles – Komisarek8:23
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson10:09
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).